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Latest from Ashraf Laidi | April 18, 2012
April Fears Ahead of Fed, Spain & China
Cyclical volatilities in April are backed by fears of a hawkish Fed dissent, resurging Spanish yields & further Chinese doubts
 
   
   
 
April Fears Ahead of Fed, Spain & China - Apr 18 (29 comments)
Cyclical volatilities in April are backed by fears of a hawkish Fed dissent, resurging Spanish yields & further Chinese doubts [read more]

March

Gold & Silver Face the Fed - Mar 2
The rally in metals could be in for another spring time decline if the Fed changes its tack owards inflation & growth. But silver remains preferable to gold. [read more]

January

Stocks Thump Yields as Growth Looks on - Jan 27 (5 comments)
A fresh episode of soaring stocks relative to benign yields while growth remains benign. Central banks can buy time for sovereigns as they did for banks in 2008...but for how long? [read more]

November 2011

Tackling Liquidity, Policy, Geopol & Solvency - November 30, 2011
Global equity markets have peaked well before the top in inflation rates. A repeat of the 2007-2008 pattern signals another 20% decline in stocks [read more]

Charting Euro Macro, Yields & LIBOR Spreads - November 10, 2011
The case for a lower euro is broadening into macroeconomics, liquidity and yield differentials [read more]

September 2011

Fed's Twist, ECB's Turn, Euro Shouts - September 21, 2011 (17 comments)
Today's Operation Twist by the Fed confirms US monetary policy will be inadequately dovish to boost EURUSD and weigh on USD [read more]

July 2011

Silver Lining, Debt Ceiling & Quant Easing - July 27, 2011 (13 comments)
A new record high in gold, lack of progress in US Debt talks, lack of long term term solutions in Europe; all are strong reasons for Silver to catch up [read more]

June 2011

SPR the New Global QE? - June 24, 2011 (7 comments)
The IEA decision to release 60 mln barrels of oil reflects the G20's frustrations with the inflationary implications of the inevitable weakening in the US currency. [read more]

May 2011

Another Bullish Argument for Metals? - May 6, 2011 (15 comments)
Gold & silver may find a fresh source of bullishness from Eurozone debt concerns if the "Greece Exit" story bears weigh. And QE2 has yet to be extended. [read more]

March 2011

ECB Peripheral Divergence & EURUSD - March 16, 2011 (8 comments)
Euro rebounds in FX thanks to a hawkish ECB in the face of questionable peripheral yields. What gives? [read more]

January 2011

Euro: New Year, New Challenges - January 5, 2011 (27 comments)
Euro enters its 12 year and adds a 17th member but the challenges keep on coming. While parity in EURUSD is not viable, no real recovery is due any time soon. [read more]

November 2010

EURGBP & Gold vs Aussie Signals - November 14, 2010 (44 comments)
EURGBP is the preferred short euro play for now, whiile Gold in Aussie terms gives more clues on Gold's direction than Gold/USD [read more]

October 2010

Gold/Oil Ratio Signals & Latest QE Path - October 5, 2010 (31 comments)
Shifts in Gold/Oil Ratio indicate further strength in equities, while BoJ easing will remain futile for FX markets [read more]

September 2010

The QE Case for Gold & Silver - September 3, 2010 (56 comments)
The inevitability of further asset purchases from the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ enhance the case for gold and silver. [read more]

August 2010

EURIBOR, Euro & USD Index - August 3, 2010 (15 comments)
Pay attention to the EU-USD Spread of Libor rather than isolating EUR & USD libor. [read more]

July 2010

Yen Draws Safe Haven Share - July 16, 2010 (37 comments)
Yen strength is here to stay especially as the US dollar's safe-haven lustre is eroded by the worsening US data. [read more]

June 2010

Eurozone Core, USD Index & Swiss Knife - June 11, 2010 (43 comments)
Watch the risk of contacgion into Eurozone core nations, as well as the USD Index monthly rise and the broadening gains in the Swiss franc. [read more]

May 2010

FX Interventions, Aussie & Gold - May 19, 2010 (41 comments)
ECB Intervention is inevitable, Gold set to catch down with other commodities & Aussie to way down under [read more]

1999 & 2010 Similarities in USD, Euro - May 4, 2010 (22 comments)
The dollar index is set to start its longest MONTHLY winning streak since Jan-June 1999, a year when the USD bullishness and euro gloom was at its maximum [read more]

April 2010

BDI's Peaking Impact & Stocks' Barrier - April 19, 2010 (28 comments)
Peaks in Baltic Dry Index has once again lead the tops in metals & fuel, while S&P500 and the Dow struggle at their latest barriers. [read more]

March 2010

Signals from Commodities & LIBOR - March 30, 2010 (41 comments)
Yield differentials, LIBOR developments and the failure in the CRB and Crude Oil continue to boost USD [read more]

S&P500 / VIX Ratio & USD LIBOR - March 8, 2010 (200 comments)
On the cycles of the S&P500 / VIX ratio and the stabilizing cost of USD 3-month LIBOR relative to its yen counterpart. [read more]

February 2010

Gold Catching Down with Euro - February 23, 2010 (201 comments)
Gold's record high vs. euro was a key signal in ensuring bearishness in both the currency & the metal against the US dollar. Forex & commodity traders must watch. [read more]

$1.32 Euro Under Construction - February 3, 2010 (116 comments)
The deteriorating momentum of sovereign concerns in the Eurozone & further dissenting rhetoric from FOMC to weigh further on EUR & other risk currencies. [read more]

January 2010

Euro's Dead Cross - January 19, 2010 (147 comments)
EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation. [read more]

More Euro Losses Ahead - January 5, 2010 (279 comments)
More losses in the euro are seen ahead despite rallying oil prices. [read more]

December 2009

Dollar Sobers Up Despite Fed PunchBowl - December 18, 2009 (80 comments)
Time for US dollar to regain some composure, especially against the sterling, whose 2010 fortunes for the year appear dismal at best. [read more]

November 2009

Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm - November 27, 2009 (397 comments)
Yen strength still eclipsing USD rebounds during risk aversion. while gold's ascent is better gauged against currencies other than the US dollar. [read more]

Oil Weakness May Intensify - November 19, 2009 (315 comments)
Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses. [read more]

Don't Forget the Yen - November 10, 2009 (611 comments)
Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD. [read more]

FX, Oil Eye Equity Inflection - November 3, 2009 (25 comments)
[read more]

October 2009

Parameters in Equities, Oil - October 22, 2009 (54 comments)
The 100-week moving averages in the S&P500 and US crude oil will act as the next resistance for risk appetite and USD-selling. [read more]

Multi-FX Gold View & Shanghai Reminder - October 6, 2009 (60 comments)
Looking at Gold in various currencies continues to help clarify FX secular strength, while it is time to revisit the Shanghai Composite's monthly chart. [read more]

September 2009

Yield Curves, FX & LIBOR Trends - September 23, 2009 (57 comments)
Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP. [read more]

Unusual FX Action? - September 11, 2009 (103 comments)
Broadening USD weakness is joined by broad yen strength rather than weakness could have implications for FX view on appetite. [read more]

August 2009

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal - August 21, 2009 (852 comments)
BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while. [read more]

Unsustainable Appetite in FX, Equities & Oil - August 13, 2009 (200 comments)
We're witnessing more signs of peaking appetite, this time inside the individual Forex pairs, as well as more failure in oil and Chinese stocks [read more]

Quantitative Easing & Currency Strengthening - August 6, 2009 (37 comments)
Central Banks (ex Fed) have little choice but to maintain QE to avoid excessive tightening of transmission mechanism from their rising currencies. [read more]

July 2009

Dollar Stabilization & Stock/Gold Ratio - July 28, 2009 (35 comments)
Dollar weakness getting too excessive, while the rising S&P500 / Gold ratio is nearing its peak. [read more]

Gauging the Bounce in Appetite - July 16, 2009 (89 comments)
Forex markets have yet to buy into the rally in US equities. [read more]

Dollar Stability Choppy & Temporary - July 6, 2009 (61 comments)
The dollar's much anticipated stabilization is bound to be choppy at best [read more]

June 2009

Green Shoots Fatigue & Intermarket Setup - June 29, 2009 (71 comments)
The much-anticipated dollar rebound will rather emerge on "Green Shoots" fatigue rathern misplaced views of a US economic recovery preceding the rest of the world. [read more]

Exiting the Exit Strategy - June 19, 2009 (65 comments)
Bernanke's FOMC will use "disinflationary" reference to containing yields rather than benign growth. Thursday is his 2nd chance. [read more]

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar - June 10, 2009 (208 comments)
Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency. [read more]

May 2009

Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves - May 28, 2009 (129 comments)
Soaring yields give no choice to the Fed but to increase the quantity of bond purchases at the expense of the dollar. Speculative Forex positions agree. [read more]

Dollar Slashed as Fed Goes Shopping - May 20, 2009 (87 comments)
Fed's latest bond buybacks triggers fresh dollar damage, while VIX downside does not spell out the end of equity selling. [read more]

Oil to Underperform Metals - May 14, 2009 (54 comments)
Forex, oil, gold & equity implications of rebounding Gold/Oil Ratio. [read more]

Golden Chance from FX-Equity Play - May 7, 2009 (50 comments)
When FX lead equities [read more]

April 2009

Rising Yields Fight the Fed - April 27, 2009 (42 comments)
Rising bond yields are further hampering the Fed's policy [read more]

Selective Carry Trades in FX/Equities - April 15, 2009 (40 comments)
Currency selection becomes more relevant on evolving risk appetite. [read more]

Aussie's Latest Boost - April 2, 2009 (21 comments)
The rally in copper and wheat enforces bullishness in the Aussie [read more]

March 2009

Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil - March 20, 2009 (54 comments)
The Fed's latest negative-dollar move is likely to last more than in previous occasions. [read more]

Here Comes the 2-Month Cycle - March 13, 2009 (41 comments)
Stocks could be in for a fresh 2-month rally, in line with the pattern of the past 12 months. [read more]

FX, Bond Yields & Oil Prices - March 10, 2009 (12 comments)
Latest rally in bond yields and oil prices is largely a manifestation of supply forces, which could start weighing on the greenback. [read more]

Loonie's Falling Downside - March 2, 2009 (22 comments)
The Canadian currency faces deepening damage ahead. [read more]

February 2009

Equity/Gold Ratio's 40 yr Cycle - February 18, 2009 (14 comments)
Equity/Gold ratio hits 18-yr lows, but cyclical patterns suggest more to come. [read more]

Gold's Net Longs & the Gold/Oil Ratio - February 11, 2009 (6 comments)
Gold's latest rally rests on a powerful set-up of inter-market dynamics. [read more]

Aussie's Risk-Based Bounce - February 3, 2009 (29 comments)
Despite another big rate cut, Aussie seen carrying prolonged gains along with further pullback in the VIX. [read more]

January 2009

How Gold Links Treasuries & the Dollar - January 26, 2009 (30 comments)
Tracking treasury yields can be helpful in dissecting the USD-GOLD relationship. [read more]

Sterling's Damage & Geithner's Dollar Policy - January 22, 2009 (7 comments)
Unfolding currency priorities in the US and Europe. [read more]

More Risk Aversion til Pres. Inauguration - January 15, 2009 (28 comments)
Prolonged risk aversion is expected to ensue until Tuesdays presidential inauguration brings in a temporary feel good rally. [read more]

European FX Surge vs. Commodity FX - January 8, 2009 (9 comments)
As BoE rate cuts grow smaller, GBP and EUR emerge victorious against commodity currencies. [read more]

Risk Appetite Pushes the Envelope - January 2, 2009 (23 comments)
Equities on their way of breaching above the 20% rebound limit. [read more]

December 2008

Euro Gains on Geopolitics & USD Strains - December 29, 2008 (1 comments)
Euro strength and dollar weakness emerge in thin trading activity as geopolitical uncertainty creeps higher, propping gold to a 10-week high. [read more]

Zero-Bound Fed Breaks Dollar - December 16, 2008 (14 comments)
The Fed's shift to a range-driven fed funds target intensifies the yield assault to the world's main reserve currency. [read more]

Detroit Spoils Dollar Party - December 11, 2008 (4 comments)
Detroit may be just an excuse, but the dollar's non-fundamental run is showing more cracks. [read more]

More Risk Appetite as Stimuli Gone Wild - December 8, 2008 (4 comments)
Global equities, high yielding currencies and commodities pursue their rallying ways in US trading as stimulus hysteria grips the worlds leading economies. [read more]

Yen Leads Risk-Driven Jobs Reaction - December 5, 2008
Aside from the shocking 533K decline in US November payrolls (expectations -330K), the ward revisions in layoffs in prior months were as horrendous, with September payrolls revised to -403K from initial -284K. [read more]

November 2008

Fed's Quantitative Easing Extends Seasonal Reversals - November 25, 2008 (19 comments)
As the Fed's quantitative easing policy reaches a new landmark, markets are set to make their seasonal reversal, typical of the last 5-6 weeks of the calendar year. [read more]

Beware of Seasonal Forex Reversals - November 19, 2008 (13 comments)
Beware of temproary but sharp FX reversals as seasonal shifts emerge in the last 5-6 weeks of the year, paring the flows prevailing in Sep-Oct. [read more]

Consumers Further Erode Retail Payrolls - November 14, 2008 (6 comments)
October's record breaking decline in retail sales underscores the deepening implications of falling demand on retail sector payrolls. [read more]

Risk Aversion Fills Data Vacuum - November 11, 2008 (2 comments)
Market turmoil deepens as US auto manufacturers, retailers and shippers, are forced into making fresh waves of layoffs, feeding off the negative loop from rising employment, falling consumption, lower earnings and eroding bank credit. [read more]

Bank of England Plays Catch-up at Expense of Sterling - November 6, 2008 (9 comments)
UK interest rates are now below those of the Eurozone for the first time in the life of the euro. Today's 150-bp cut is a grave assault to the British pound's central bank reserve currency role. [read more]

Elections, the Dollar, Stocks & the Economy - November 3, 2008 (9 comments)
How the Dollar, Stocks and the Economy Fared in the last 38 years of US Partisan Politics. [read more]

October 2008

Reflationary Trade Here to Stay - October 29, 2008 (6 comments)
The combination of market and macroeconomic elements will maintain global monetary policy in a rare unison of easing mode (again typical of global recession), hence, paving the way for the reflationary trade (explained below). [read more]

Yen's Path of Least Resistance - October 24, 2008 (15 comments)
The collapsing sterling makes the news, but the plunging USDJPY to 13-year lows sends a vocal message to global markets. [read more]

Yen Still Outperforms in Forex Meltdown - October 22, 2008 (6 comments)
As the dollar continues to rally against higher yielding currencies, the yen remains the clear outperformer during the latest market sell-off, making GBPJPY and NZDJPY the greatest losers in today's forex activity. [read more]

USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis - October 16, 2008 (12 comments)
USDJPY is set for another short-lived attempt of 103 yen while prolonged yield curve steepening in the US, EU and UK tells about the probabilities of incoming rate cuts. [read more]

Retail Sales' Message from Main Street - October 15, 2008 (9 comments)
The attached chart shows the year on year change in retail sales of 1.03% was the first decline since October 2002. There has been only 3 annual declines since 1992 (September 2001 and October 2002). [read more]

FX Performance Since the Storm - October 10, 2008 (4 comments)
The charts show the performance of major currencies as measured against gold and each other, since September 2-- two weeks before the makets' plunge. [read more]

Margin Debt Shows More Selling Ahead - October 7, 2008 (12 comments)
There is one concrete reason why US indices could lose at least another 20-25% from current levels. The powerful correlation between margin debt usage by member firms of the NY Stock Exchange and the trend of major indices such as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrials Average suggests further selling ahead in the main indices. [read more]

What Retail Layoffs are Telling us - October 3, 2008
Rather than looking at just overall payrolls or the unemployment rate, focus also on the duration of layoffs in retail jobs, which tell us a great deal about the prospects for the US consumer. [read more]

More EUR, GBP Selling Ahead - October 1, 2008
Further dollar gains seen ahead on European banks' short-term funding problems and the eroding fundamentals in the Old Continent. Gains in equity indices are seen limited. [read more]

September 2008

Fed Cut May Come Before Oct 29 - September 25, 2008 (12 comments)
The Swiss Franc outperform the yen as forex traders seek refuge to the least risky currency on soaring LIBOR rates, weak US data, GE earnings downgrade and rising odds of a Fed cut. [read more]

IFO Sustains Euro Weakness - September 24, 2008
Fresh 3-year lows in German IFO survey will sustain further euro weakness and slow the rate of deterioration in the dollar. [read more]

A Super Tuesday for the Dollar ? - September 23, 2008 (4 comments)
Todays quadruple testimony (Fed's Bernanke, Treasury's Paulson, SEC's Cox and OFHF's Lockhart) at the Senate Banking Committee is expected to priduce a solid day for the US currenct and equity indices. [read more]

Implications of Gold's Rise Relative to Oil - September 18, 2008 (23 comments)
In recent months, I warned of the ominous implications of a rebounding gold/oil ratio. Yesterday, gold further outpaced oil in relative terms, giving more credence to the thesis of intensifying declines in US fundamentals. [read more]

Bridge Loans to ... Everywhere - September 17, 2008 (12 comments)
Despite another historic intervention by US authorities, the intended market reaction evaporates in the midst of heightened market worries and risk aversion. Forex traders pare down earlier yen losses and maintain pressure on the dollar. [read more]

Confluence for a Dollar Top? (with Charts) - September 15, 2008 (1 comments)
The confluence of forces in the dollar, oil and gold sugests a powerful signal of a top in the dollar's upward cocrrection. The historical faillures of US banks and their bailouts strike a vocal reminder of the fundamental deificiencies of the US dollar. [read more]

Fed Forced Back to Easing Mode - September 12, 2008 (4 comments)
Today's unexpected declines in US retail sales and PPI coupled with the worsening state of conditions with US banks make interest rate cuts a foregone conclusion in Q4, supporting my calls since May that the next interest rate change is down, rather than up. [read more]

Risk Aversion Drives JPY, GBP in Opposite Ways - September 9, 2008
Increased risk aversion continues to benefit the low yielding JPY and CHF, while punishing GBP, as the Bank of England hast yet to cut rates in H2 2008. Even bad news in the US are becoming GBP negative as risk appetite is eroded. [read more]

GSE Bailout Good for Confidence Not for Fundamentals - September 8, 2008
The FX and stock market reaction to the US Government takeover of Fannie and Freddie will be temporary. The unwinding of previous gains in USD and JPY is expected to reverse course and see fresh selling in GBP, AUD and EUR. [read more]

FX Implications of Latest US Jobs Report - September 5, 2008
The US August jobs report clears doubts of a US recession, but the currency implications remain kinder to the US dollar due to relative global macro strengths. The yen, however, is the exception. [read more]

August 2008

Secular Currency Performance - August 28, 2008 (4 comments)
Why the dollar has outperformed and which currencies have fared the worst. A secular FX performance measure since the beginning of H2 and YTD. [read more]

Sterling's Olympian Dive - August 13, 2008
The dollar regains composure following a brief retreat following the US retail sales report, but the tumbling pound remains the headliner in foreign exchange markets. [read more]

July 2008

US vs Eurozone Weakness - July 25, 2008
We disagree with the notion that emerging weakness in Europe would be a reason for a 5-7% decrease in the EURUSD exchange rate . Rather, such weakness is an obstacle to further record highs in the euro against the dollar. [read more]

June 2008

EUR Share of FX Reserves vs USD - June 30, 2008
The Q1 2008 IMF data on currency composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves shows a continued gradual fall in USD claims along with continued increase in the EUR claims. [read more]

Warning Signal from S&P's 50 and 100 Week MA - June 19, 2008
The 50-week moving average of the S&P500 is approaching the 100-week moving average. A break below the 100 MA would suggest accelerating declines in the S&P500 and other equity indices. [read more]

Rate Hike Expectations Must be Abandoned - June 6, 2008
Today's jump in the unemployment rate to by 0.5 to 5.5% highlights our stark disagreement with the market pricing a rate hike this year, which was largely a result of Fed speeches rather than actual data. [read more]

January 2008

Margin Data Suggest Prolonged Bear Market - January 25, 2008
Falling margin debt at the New York Stock Exchange indicates prolonged declines ahead in US equities. The historical significance proves extremely valid. [read more]
 
   
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Interest Rates
US0.25%
 
JPN0.10%
 
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GBP0.50%
 
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NZD2.50%
 
NOK1.50%
 
 
Intraday Market Thoughts

2012.05.17: EURUSD hits 1.2667 and equity futures deteriorate further as Moodys warned it will downgrade 21 Spanish banks, Syriza party says will never join pro-bailout coalition and more chatter of Greek bank run. S&P500 eyes 1320 territory, marking the 7%

2012.05.16: In our April 18 article we warned how April showers, could bring May Bearish Flowers (see here: http://ashraflaidi.com/ content/ images/ articles/ SPX%20April%20Apr%2011.JPG_640W.gif) Stocks are now down nearly 7%. In the SP500/VIX ratio chart (also

2012.05.16: UK labor market improves; GBP drops as BoE slashes growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.2%; Eurozone CPI unchanged; German and French bond auctions; gold at key support. Market turns to building permits, housing starts, industrial production, Draghi's

 

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