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Latest from Ashraf Laidi | April 18, 2012
April Fears Ahead of Fed, Spain & China
Cyclical volatilities in April are backed by fears of a hawkish Fed dissent, resurging Spanish yields & further Chinese doubts
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March
Gold & Silver Face the Fed - Mar 2
The rally in metals could be in for another spring time decline if the Fed changes its tack owards inflation & growth. But silver remains preferable to gold. [read more]
January
Stocks Thump Yields as Growth Looks on - Jan 27 (5 comments)
A fresh episode of soaring stocks relative to benign yields while growth remains benign. Central banks can buy time for sovereigns as they did for banks in 2008...but for how long? [read more]
November 2011
September 2011
July 2011
June 2011
SPR the New Global QE? - June 24, 2011 (7 comments)
The IEA decision to release 60 mln barrels of oil reflects the G20's frustrations with the inflationary implications of the inevitable weakening in the US currency. [read more]
May 2011
March 2011
January 2011
Euro: New Year, New Challenges - January 5, 2011 (27 comments)
Euro enters its 12 year and adds a 17th member but the challenges keep on coming. While parity in EURUSD is not viable, no real recovery is due any time soon. [read more]
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
Gold Catching Down with Euro - February 23, 2010 (201 comments)
Gold's record high vs. euro was a key signal in ensuring bearishness in both the currency & the metal against the US dollar. Forex & commodity traders must watch. [read more]
$1.32 Euro Under Construction - February 3, 2010 (116 comments)
The deteriorating momentum of sovereign concerns in the Eurozone & further dissenting rhetoric from FOMC to weigh further on EUR & other risk currencies. [read more]
January 2010
Euro's Dead Cross - January 19, 2010 (147 comments)
EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation. [read more]
December 2009
November 2009
Gold & Yen's Perfect Desert Storm - November 27, 2009 (397 comments)
Yen strength still eclipsing USD rebounds during risk aversion. while gold's ascent is better gauged against currencies other than the US dollar. [read more]
Oil Weakness May Intensify - November 19, 2009 (315 comments)
Oil sluggishness may risk turning into a faster selloff, especially as the fuel fails to gain on recent USD losses. [read more]
Don't Forget the Yen - November 10, 2009 (611 comments)
Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD. [read more]
October 2009
Parameters in Equities, Oil - October 22, 2009 (54 comments)
The 100-week moving averages in the S&P500 and US crude oil will act as the next resistance for risk appetite and USD-selling. [read more]
September 2009
Yield Curves, FX & LIBOR Trends - September 23, 2009 (57 comments)
Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP. [read more]
Unusual FX Action? - September 11, 2009 (103 comments)
Broadening USD weakness is joined by broad yen strength rather than weakness could have implications for FX view on appetite. [read more]
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
Exiting the Exit Strategy - June 19, 2009 (65 comments)
Bernanke's FOMC will use "disinflationary" reference to containing yields rather than benign growth. Thursday is his 2nd chance. [read more]
May 2009
Yield Shoots, Dollar Leaves - May 28, 2009 (129 comments)
Soaring yields give no choice to the Fed but to increase the quantity of bond purchases at the expense of the dollar. Speculative Forex positions agree. [read more]
April 2009
March 2009
FX, Bond Yields & Oil Prices - March 10, 2009 (12 comments)
Latest rally in bond yields and oil prices is largely a manifestation of supply forces, which could start weighing on the greenback. [read more]
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
Yen Leads Risk-Driven Jobs Reaction - December 5, 2008
Aside from the shocking 533K decline in US November payrolls (expectations -330K), the ward revisions in layoffs in prior months were as horrendous, with September payrolls revised to -403K from initial -284K. [read more]
November 2008
Risk Aversion Fills Data Vacuum - November 11, 2008 (2 comments)
Market turmoil deepens as US auto manufacturers, retailers and shippers, are forced into making fresh waves of layoffs, feeding off the negative loop from rising employment, falling consumption, lower earnings and eroding bank credit. [read more]
October 2008
Reflationary Trade Here to Stay - October 29, 2008 (6 comments)
The combination of market and macroeconomic elements will maintain global monetary policy in a rare unison of easing mode (again typical of global recession), hence, paving the way for the reflationary trade (explained below).
[read more]
Yen Still Outperforms in Forex Meltdown - October 22, 2008 (6 comments)
As the dollar continues to rally against higher yielding currencies, the yen remains the clear outperformer during the latest market sell-off, making GBPJPY and NZDJPY the greatest losers in today's forex activity. [read more]
USDJPY Strategy and Yield Curve Analysis - October 16, 2008 (12 comments)
USDJPY is set for another short-lived attempt of 103 yen while prolonged yield curve steepening in the US, EU and UK tells about the probabilities of incoming rate cuts. [read more]
Retail Sales' Message from Main Street - October 15, 2008 (9 comments)
The attached chart shows the year on year change in retail sales of 1.03% was the first decline since October 2002. There has been only 3 annual declines since 1992 (September 2001 and October 2002). [read more]
FX Performance Since the Storm - October 10, 2008 (4 comments)
The charts show the performance of major currencies as measured against gold and each other, since September 2-- two weeks before the makets' plunge. [read more]
Margin Debt Shows More Selling Ahead - October 7, 2008 (12 comments)
There is one concrete reason why US indices could lose at least another 20-25% from current levels. The powerful correlation between margin debt usage by member firms of the NY Stock Exchange and the trend of major indices such as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrials Average suggests further selling ahead in the main indices.
[read more]
What Retail Layoffs are Telling us - October 3, 2008
Rather than looking at just overall payrolls or the unemployment rate, focus also on the duration of layoffs in retail jobs, which tell us a great deal about the prospects for the US consumer. [read more]
More EUR, GBP Selling Ahead - October 1, 2008
Further dollar gains seen ahead on European banks' short-term funding problems and the eroding fundamentals in the Old Continent. Gains in equity indices are seen limited. [read more]
September 2008
Fed Cut May Come Before Oct 29 - September 25, 2008 (12 comments)
The Swiss Franc outperform the yen as forex traders seek refuge to the least risky currency on soaring LIBOR rates, weak US data, GE earnings downgrade and rising odds of a Fed cut. [read more]
A Super Tuesday for the Dollar ? - September 23, 2008 (4 comments)
Todays quadruple testimony (Fed's Bernanke, Treasury's Paulson, SEC's Cox and OFHF's Lockhart) at the Senate Banking Committee is expected to priduce a solid day for the US currenct and equity indices. [read more]
Implications of Gold's Rise Relative to Oil - September 18, 2008 (23 comments)
In recent months, I warned of the ominous implications of a rebounding gold/oil ratio. Yesterday, gold further outpaced oil in relative terms, giving more credence to the thesis of intensifying declines in US fundamentals. [read more]
Bridge Loans to ... Everywhere - September 17, 2008 (12 comments)
Despite another historic intervention by US authorities, the intended market reaction evaporates in the midst of heightened market worries and risk aversion. Forex traders pare down earlier yen losses and maintain pressure on the dollar. [read more]
Confluence for a Dollar Top? (with Charts) - September 15, 2008 (1 comments)
The confluence of forces in the dollar, oil and gold sugests a powerful signal of a top in the dollar's upward cocrrection. The historical faillures of US banks and their bailouts strike a vocal reminder of the fundamental deificiencies of the US dollar. [read more]
Fed Forced Back to Easing Mode - September 12, 2008 (4 comments)
Today's unexpected declines in US retail sales and PPI coupled with the worsening state of conditions with US banks make interest rate cuts a foregone conclusion in Q4, supporting my calls since May that the next interest rate change is down, rather than up. [read more]
Risk Aversion Drives JPY, GBP in Opposite Ways - September 9, 2008
Increased risk aversion continues to benefit the low yielding JPY and CHF, while punishing GBP, as the Bank of England hast yet to cut rates in H2 2008. Even bad news in the US are becoming GBP negative as risk appetite is eroded. [read more]
FX Implications of Latest US Jobs Report - September 5, 2008
The US August jobs report clears doubts of a US recession, but the currency implications remain kinder to the US dollar due to relative global macro strengths. The yen, however, is the exception. [read more]
August 2008
Secular Currency Performance - August 28, 2008 (4 comments)
Why the dollar has outperformed and which currencies have fared the worst. A secular FX performance measure since the beginning of H2 and YTD. [read more]
Sterling's Olympian Dive - August 13, 2008
The dollar regains composure following a brief retreat following the US retail sales report, but the tumbling pound remains the headliner in foreign exchange markets. [read more]
July 2008
US vs Eurozone Weakness - July 25, 2008
We disagree with the notion that emerging weakness in Europe would be a reason for a 5-7% decrease in the EURUSD exchange rate . Rather, such weakness is an obstacle to further record highs in the euro against the dollar. [read more]
June 2008
EUR Share of FX Reserves vs USD - June 30, 2008
The Q1 2008 IMF data on currency composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves shows a continued gradual fall in USD claims along with continued increase in the EUR claims. [read more]
Rate Hike Expectations Must be Abandoned - June 6, 2008
Today's jump in the unemployment rate to by 0.5 to 5.5% highlights our stark disagreement with the market pricing a rate hike this year, which was largely a result of Fed speeches rather than actual data. [read more]
January 2008
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Mar 22 Warning Materializes as Euro Stocks Suffer
4 weeks after we warned in the . more..
