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Speculators' Futures FX Positions

by Ashraf Laidi
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The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another. The data are broken down into commitments by commercial players (usually made up of businesses aiming to hedge currency risk) and speculators (traders buying and selling contracts purely for reaping the gains from price changes). The figures, expressed in number of contracts, show the buyers and sellers of futures' currency contracts and total open interest.



 
    Comments By Users (508)   (View All Comments)    Post a comment

March 9, 2010 08:39 ET
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/ea3b5df2-efb4-4485-9ee3-d5972e39bdbc/6ffd4e40-930e-4741-b89b-a4768273b60c.pdf

from my analysis of the chart it appears that cable speculators (non commercial) are at record net shorts since 04. The chart also shows that speculators anticipate moves in advance where large moves are due. So it will be quite interesting to see how thigs pan out. Lots of anaysts are expecting a short sqeeze here and a move higher in cable but they forget about fundamentals in UK being unfavourable at present. Both political and economically. I am more in favour of the speculators anticipating a huge drop i cable.
London, UK

March 2, 2010 06:24 ET
Peggy, i redid the colours for JPY chart to make it less confusing. And yes, the GRAY graph is ABOVE zero which means there are NET LONGS in JPY (net shorts in USD) of 1,717 contracts (BARELY POSITIVE). Note how these NET JPY LONGS have fallen from as much as 29K contracts.

Euro, the RED GRAPH is LABELLED AS "CAD NET LONGS" with the ARROW POINTING TO THE LEFT, WHICH MEANS YOU HAVE TO SEE AT THE LEFT HAND SCALE I.E. OVER 28,421 contracts. people are net long CAD vs USD by 28421 contracts (see left hand scale of the char).

Ashraf
ALeppo, Syria

March 2, 2010 06:03 ET
Member since Jan 2010
chart USDCAD does it mean usd up to 1.4
California, US

March 2, 2010 06:00 ET
Mr. Laidi,

Really sorry, but the inverted scale confused me a little...it's probably a stupid question.

Would you please clarify how one should decipher the Yen net longs/shorts chart? Does this chart say that net longs outnumber the shorts and Yen is slated for more weakness? USDJPY will go lower or higher?

Appreciate your comments.

Peggy.

London, UK

March 1, 2010 18:15 ET
Louisville, DD,

numbers from the CME. Yes, they do have NZDUSD and USDCHF. I will post these soon

Ashraf
DD
Michigan, US

March 1, 2010 17:47 ET
Member since Feb 2010
Thanks Ashraf...this is amazing!!! No USD/CHF or NZD/USD, just curious...
Kentucky, US

February 14, 2010 16:03 ET
Member since Jan 2010
Ashraf.........are these numbers available weekly or monthly only?
London, UK

January 21, 2010 16:37 ET
Ashraf,

My heartiest wishes & congrats for successfully completing one year on this Forum. (I wanted to send you a card at CMC...but unfortunately, I had been away).

And what can I say that hasn't been said before you & this Forum...so I'll just say a simple 'thanks' (& the rest, ofcourse, you know...in what sight I hold you).

God Bless & keep the good work going... :)

Asad
London, UK

January 21, 2010 14:05 ET
Seal, the use of the word volatility in the VIX acronym is a bit misleading. Please see CBOE website and wickipedia for detailed expalanation on how it's calculated. But No, volatility proper, is not inherently more during falling markets.

Ashraf
London, UK

January 21, 2010 12:10 ET
Member since Dec 2009
Hi Ashraf,

I would like to know if the volatillity is higher on a bear market. If so, why?

Thanks a lot

S

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