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Speculators' Futures FX Positions

by Ashraf Laidi
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The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another. The data are broken down into commitments by commercial players (usually made up of businesses aiming to hedge currency risk) and speculators (traders buying and selling contracts purely for reaping the gains from price changes). The figures, expressed in number of contracts, show the buyers and sellers of futures' currency contracts and total open interest.



 

Comments By Users

Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.17
We could see cable reach as high as $1.60 in the next leg up into year-end.
AK London, United Kingdom
2008.11.17

Hi Ashraf,

Given your comments above (specifically to Shaane) where do you see cable in 2 weeks to one month.. from now...cable has crashed down to upper 1.40's .. do you expect a rebound up towards 1.60's before targeting multi-decade support at 1.37?

Thanks!

Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.04
Keivan,

Chapters 5, 6 and 9 of my book explain how to ead yield curves for figuring out currency movements and central bank decisions. Chapter 9 also has some valuable techniques of understanding the special relationships between US yield curves and USDJPY.

Go to the link and click "Surprise me"

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0470226234/ref=sib_dp_ptu#reader-link

Ashraf

Keivan Tehran, Iran
2008.11.04
Thank you Ashraf,
Can you introduce a source (Book, PDF or website) to help me analysis of bond and interest rates for forex market?
Thanks
Keivan

Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.04
Shaane,

I expect TEMPORARY dollar weakness to intensify in second half of November into year-end with upside targets for EURUSD and AUDUSD at $1.37 and AUDUSD at 0.73.

Ashraf
shaane singapore, Singapore
2008.11.04
hi ashraf, where do you think the eur/usd and the gbp/usd will be in 2 weeks to one month..thanks
Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.03
Keivan,

Go to www.ft.com/markets and look up Bonds in the data section.

Ashraf
Keivan Tehran, Iran
2008.11.03
Hi,
Just saw your website.
I am looking for a source for daily yield curve (specially 10 y) for major currencies.
Can you help me?
Thank you in advance,
Keivan

Nour Amman, Jordan
2008.11.03
thanks alot ashraf but just want to ask whats the meaning of rally in forex ??

Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.03
Nour,

$640 is a major low, 76% retracement of the low from July 2005. Oil foundation stands at $48-55. Careful from Sterling. 50-bp rate cut this week is assured. talk of a 75-bp move.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.03
Nour Amman, Jordan
2008.11.03
thanks ashraf ,

do u mean that we might see oil higher again? what do u mean by rally exactly plz and if u have some targets for gold and oil

thanks
Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.02
Hi Wasim,

Nice to hear from you. GBP remains more of a short-term bearish play during each intermittent gains. How war more ill it go? It is time for a sharp rebound to as high as $1.75, but I dont think we have seen the lows yet. $1.45-1.46 remains very plausible. More rate cuts ahead by the Bank of England. 50-bps seen this Thursday.
Best
Ashraf
wasim zayed Amman, Jordan
2008.11.02
Hello Mr. Ashraf;

I still recall ur quote when u said " GBP will be the biggest loser in 2008" , that was back in the end of 2007 and again usaid the same in 2008... I always follow ur comments and its really really helpful.

D u think the GBP still going to the 1.50 -1.45 this year ?

regards
Ashraf Laidi New York, United States
2008.11.02
Hi Nour,

I prefer gold to oil. Im not an expert is oil but id say it could drop as low as $55. $45 is a major low. If you want to speculate in commodities, you're better off doing it in Gold, which i consider better favored than oil. As I said before, within the next 3 months, we should see a major rally in metals.

Ashraf
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