| | | | | |
Intraday Market Thoughts
January 5, 2009 15:21 ET: Cable +300 pips, reaching my $1.47 target mentioned earlier (see previous Intraday Market Thought) despite toay's broad USD rally. Today's GBP advances mark the building blocks of a possible $1.5050 reading before Thursday's Bank of England rate decision. Market chatter leaning towards a smaller rate cut of as little as 50 bps, but 75-bp cut, would also help extend GBP gains on the foundation that the BoE may be nearing the end of the easing.
January 5, 2009 08:57 ET: USDJPY breaks out to 4-week highs at 93.56, cheering the extended pick up in global risk appetite, which is boosting all major yen crosses. I warned in Fridays note "Risk Appetite Pushes Envelope" that a breach of 92.50 in USDJPY would be followed by a major trend line resistance of 97.50 on the weekly chart. But the interim resistance of 94.00 will... Rest of analysis available to subscribers of Intraday Market Thoughts.
January 5, 2009 07:29 ET: GBPUSD was initially dragged by both the sell-off in EURUSD and the latest record low in UK CIPS construction survey, which hit 29.3 in December from 31.8 in November. Odds remain with a 75-bp rate cut to 1.25%, which could remain GBP negative especially if the BoE continues to reveal no sign of macro-improvement in its post-meeting statement. Nevertheless, intra-week technicals suggest prolonged recovery towards $1.4700 before the... Rest available for subscribers.
January 2, 2009 19:24 ET: Watch Ashraf explaining on Bloomberg TV today which level on the VIX must be watched and how the signal could translate into further break out in risk appetite, S&P500 and USDJPYflows. Also his insights on EURUSD and GBPJPY http://tinyurl.com/9m4jbf
January 2, 2009 10:05 ET: Catch Ashraf today on CNBC Europe at 4.05 pm GMT and on Bloomberg TV 5.10 pm GMT. You can watch Ashraf's insights on USDJPY cyclical lows and FOMC patterns in Wednesday's Bloomberg interview by clicking on http://tinyurl.com/87u5eg More detailed analysis on this topic is found in Chapter 9 of Ashraf's book.
January 2, 2009 08:57 ET: We have yet to see a rebound in equities of more than 25% after the last two major bounces were confined to less than 20%. In past bear markets, false rallies have extended to as far as 35% before selling re-emerged. The last 3 weeks of 2008 witnessed a moving way from risk-driven trades in currency markets (whereby dollar and yen strengthen during falling equities) and in favour of dollar-specific trading. But with risk appetite pushing higher and the VIX falling to 3 month lows at 40, this would correspond to the following market parameters: ... Rest available to subsribers
January 2, 2009 07:06 ET: Catch Ashraf on CNBC's Squawk Box at 12.30 pm GMT (7.30 pm EST) today.
December 31, 2008 09:57 ET: JPY posts its strongest year since 1999 when measuring its performance against gold. CHF comes in second place in gold terms, followed by the US dollar in third place. Most interestingly, JPY and CHF were also the top two performing currencies in 1999, a year when the global economy was reeling .... Rest available to subsribers. Best wishes for 2009 !
December 31, 2008 05:16 ET: Catch Ashraf on Bloomberg TV today at 11.35 am GMT
December 30, 2008 11:31 ET: EUR must remain supported above $1.4070 in order to maintain the latest bull phase. Rising risk aversion may pose renewed obstacle for the currency, but a host of fundamental factors and thin liquidity could accelerate the moves higher as the bias remains negative USD. EURJPY continues to act as positive indicators for the single currency as the robust JPY fails to make any marked gains vs EUR beyond 125. This is feeding into ... Rest Available to subscribers.
December 30, 2008 08:04 ET: The most recent failed attempt to parity in FX was AUDUSDs failure to breach above 99 cents in July. The fundamentals for EURGBP are different due to the prolonged easing facing the BoE relative to the ECB. While both BoE and ECB are bound by an inflation mandate, the latter governs 15-nations, thereby, more likely to triggering fresh disparate rates of inflation acceleration.
December 29, 2008 09:35 ET: The intensity of the euro's ascent is also emerging among the latest commitment reports of futures speculators, where the number of EUR short contracts vs. the USD fell by more than five folds from the record high shorts attained in mid September. The next report will likely show EURUSD interest to have finally entered net long territory for the first time in 5 months, greasing the wheels for the $1.4650 target mentioned in today's article. Consequently, the euro's 17% jump over the last 3 months is clearly a dollar story, but the euro part of the story must not be ignored as the tale of EURJPY illustrates in the 15% rise in the past 2 months. For the LATEST on CME FUTURES, please visit the Speculators' Futures FX Positions in the ANALYTICS section of this website.
December 24, 2008 09:24 ET: The last 3 weeks were a clear manifestation that the dollar rally of July-November was a result of: (i) covering of massive dollar short positions in futures and options markets; (ii) repatriation from EM and commodity funds; and (iii) 180-degree turns in the monetary policies of all major non-US central banks. I have persistently warned that the more these three primary factors played out in Q3 and Q4, the more spectacular would the next dollar decline become. Despite showing its biggest weekly drop against EUR last week (and potentially biggest monthly drop on record), the dollar has not yet fully entered the next phase of its multi-year bear market. The central banks of the Eurozone, England, Canada and Australia have yet to further ease monetary policies, albeit not to the same extent as in the US. And with prolonged risk aversion in global equities in H2 2009, the greenback has not concluded its risk-driven gains against GBP and NZD.
December 24, 2008 08:55 ET: The latest figures on US weekly jobless claims and personal consumption illustrate the accelerating path of unemployment and appreciating rate of decline in inflation, both of which highlight the need for the Federal Reserves latest push on the reflationary pedal. The 30K increase in jobless claims to 586K pushed up the 4-week moving average to 558Kanother high since the 1980 recession, making a 9% unemployment rate for 2009 a more potent possibility.
December 23, 2008 12:45 ET: Speculators remain net short EURUSD contracts but these positions have gradually diminished as the euro staged a broad rally on the back of negative US fundamentals. With ECB interest rates seen closer to their low than the Fed funds rate, currency markets will be incentivized to drive net EUR shorts into long territory as the yield differential dictates flow activity. Sterling's sell-off has given futures traders little reason to pare down their net shorts, as these remain at 30,400, close to September's record high of 49,359 contracts. Speculators and position traders will continue to pay close attention the broadening rhetoric inside the Bank of England about interest rates nearing zero%.
Archives of Intraday Market Thoughts
December 23, 2008 12:30 ET: Speculators remain net short the single currency against the dollar but these positions have gradually diminished (rising blue graph) as the euro stag... [read more..]
December 22, 2008 12:00 ET: Open interest activity in the Chicago Mercantile Exchanges International Money Market of currency futures illustrates the notable rise in net long pos... [read more..]
December 22, 2008 01:27 ET: Ashraf on Yahoo Finance's Tech Tiicker says the Dollar-Gold Shift is temporary for now... http://tinyurl.com/3olylp . Market disappointment over t... [read more..]
December 20, 2008 10:45 ET: Listen to Ashraf live on Talk Radio today (Saturday) from 1pm to 2 pm EST. Visit the site and click LISTEN. http://www.talk1370.com/ Ashraf will... [read more..]
December 19, 2008 13:50 ET: GBPJPY slumps 300 pips on the day almost hitting a fresh record low at 132.55 in line with the analysis made in the earlier Intraday Market Thought to... [read more..]
December 19, 2008 08:58 ET: Neither the BoJ cut nor the White House bridge loan to US automakers succeeds in considerably shoring up risk appetite. JPY crosses extended their dam... [read more..]
December 18, 2008 15:51 ET: Catch Ashraf on Bloomberg TV at 5pm EST (10pm GMT) today discussing FX, gold and his book.
December 18, 2008 15:28 ET: back to risk aversion trades as USD rises along with JPY on deteriorating GE outlook from S&P dragging equities lower. Short USD trades against EUR, G... [read more..]
December 18, 2008 09:56 ET: Euro's increased ability to act as the anti-dollar is in part boosting its rally across the board, including its 4-week highs against the strengthenin... [read more..]
December 17, 2008 18:12 ET: A look at Ashraf's book making CNBC TV, while discussing gold and why the rally does not yet herald the net supercyle for now.
Tags: gold
December 17, 2008 12:13 ET: Catch Ashraf on CNBC's CLOSING BELL discussing gold and the dollar. 3.15pm EST (8.15 pm GMT). Gold makes a fresh attempt to break the 5-month tre... [read more..]
December 17, 2008 10:29 ET: EURUSD shows the currency on its way to mount the biggest weekly gain (6% week-to-date), breaching the 5-month trend line resistance and breaking out ... [read more..]
December 16, 2008 14:55 ET: Fed shifts towards a range of 0-0.25% in its fed funds targe, tintensifying the yield assault on the dollar, leaving little chance for traders but to ... [read more..]
December 16, 2008 11:18 ET: With USDJPY breaching below 90 yen, 2 yen below last weeks 13-year lows and the rest of the yen crosses (EURJPY and GBPJPY) rising, the dollar impact ... [read more..]
December 15, 2008 19:18 ET: AUDJPY Daily chart may regain the trend line resistance at 62.25 extending from Nov 25 and the bigger trend line resistance of near 62.50 extending fr... [read more..]
December 15, 2008 10:47 ET: Both EURUSD and GBPUSD near my year-end targets of $1.37 and $1.56 as the dollar's woes feed on every negative hand available. Intensifying dollar- s... [read more..]
December 12, 2008 20:13 ET: Next week will be the last full trading week of the year but it won't be over for rampant market speculation--over the magnitude of the Fed's rate cut... [read more..]
December 12, 2008 05:39 ET: Catch Ashraf's TV appearance on CNBC-TV's Squawk Box at 7.30 am EST (12.30 pm GMT).
December 12, 2008 05:21 ET: The dollar's losses were particularly highlighted against the yen, as USDJPY broke to fresh 13-year lows at 88.31 yen due to the Japanese currencys co... [read more..]
December 11, 2008 09:55 ET: INTERVENTION CHATTER? As USDJPY drops back towards 91, less than a yen away from its 15-year lows of last October, dealer desk chatter is once again m... [read more..]
December 11, 2008 05:16 ET: Forex traders further bid up the EUR, GBP and other higher yielding currencies against the USD, but the JPY remains stubbornly firm, especially agains... [read more..]
December 10, 2008 14:54 ET: EURUSD DAILY. My mid-day note to CMC Clients stated "EURUSD is more than capable to have another attempt above and beyond the figure and onto $1.3040s... [read more..]
December 10, 2008 08:37 ET: I warned CMC clients yesterday in the event of a 75-bp cut, CAD downside is expected to broaden, with USDCAD likely to overshoot to as high as 1.2720-... [read more..]
December 10, 2008 08:01 ET: Markets are bracing for what is now a tentative $15 billion package for Detroit as a possible source of cushion before the US data schedule resurface... [read more..]
December 9, 2008 09:15 ET: BoC surprises with a 75-bp to 1.50% cut (instead of expected 50-bps), sending USDCAD likely above 1.27. Further upside towards 1.2750 is seen limited,... [read more..]
December 9, 2008 07:47 ET: Todays Bank of Canada rate decision (9am EST) is widely expected to produce a 50-bps rate cut to 1.75%, which would bring the accumulated easing to an... [read more..]
December 9, 2008 03:00 ET: JPY crosses push back up as risk appetite curtails some of yesterday's gains in the aftermath of a gloomy report from the British Retail Council. All ... [read more..]
December 5, 2008 11:18 ET: GBP a major loser shedding over 2 cents to $1.4539 and inline to fall back to yesterdays latest 6 year lows at $1.4463. Although both EURUSD and GBP... [read more..]
December 5, 2008 09:29 ET: Aside from the shocking 529K decline in US November payrolls (expectations -330K), the upward revisions in layoffs in prior months were as horrendous,... [read more..]
December 5, 2008 04:50 ET: While the increasingly volatile BoE delivered its 100-bp cut to 2.00% in line with expectations, the usually measured ECB surprised with a 75-bp easin... [read more..]
December 4, 2008 07:33 ET: The 100-bp rate cut from the bank of England was in line with consensus but came as a disappointment to whisper expectations of what could have been a... [read more..]
December 4, 2008 06:39 ET: Although market consensus leans towards a -100 bps by the BoE and -50 bps by the ECB, the surprise element is more likely to emerge from the BoE in th... [read more..]
December 3, 2008 18:00 ET: Ashraf's forex forecasts topped the #1 spot on FX Week's 1-month poll. Read more http://www.ashraflaidi.com/content/media/fxweek-20081201.pdf
December 3, 2008 13:54 ET: Risk aversion trades quickly being put back in with the yen dragging down all major currencies as USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY near 92.50, 116.85 and 136... [read more..]
December 3, 2008 11:49 ET: Just when risk appetite encountered a fresh blow following the bigger than expected 250K decline in the ADP survey for private payrolls, the services ... [read more..]
| | | | | |
|
|
