Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2009.10.19)

by Ashraf Laidi
Oct 19, 2009 1:04

ANOTHER 5-WEEK TOP? GBPUSD looking to regain $1.64 after UK house prices posted their first annual increase since June 2008, according to the Rightmoves October report. The m/m increase was 2.8% --biggest in 20 months. But $1.64 remains a stubborn trend line resistance since Aug 5 and could prove to be ANOTHER 5-WEEK TOP. Latest CFTC data report net euro longs vs. USD fell to +43,367 contracts last week from prior weeks +51,045 contracts, which was the largest net longs since the January 8, 2008. Note that the record net longs in EUR vs USD stood at 119,538 contracts, which attained in May 15, 2007TEN MONTHS BEFORE EURUSD hit a record high (and gold hit record high). Interestingly, the record high in net EUR SHORTS vs. USD hot 40,654 contracts (net shorts) in September 16, 2008. JPY net longs vs. USD continue to fall. According to UBS, cash positions reach their lowest levels since January 2004 as asset allocators chase equities.


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