Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.01.29)

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 29, 2010 12:23

US/CANADA Q4 GDP: Look out for a possibly explosive US Q4 GDP at 13:30 GMT, expected by consensus forecasts to be at 4.5%, but some private forecasters are expecting between 5.4% and 5.8% largely due to the effect of investory restocking. In the event of a GDP above 5.2% or 5.3%, we could see a market reaction similar to that enormous US November jobs report (released in Dec) when the US dollar immediately soared along with stock indices, only for stocks and commodities to fall back later in the US session, leaving the dollar holding strong. A strong GD report could be especially negative for the JPY across the board and possibly propelling USDJPY to as high as 90.90. Also at 13:30 is CAN Nov GDP, expected +0.3% could especially boost USDCAD in the event of a +5% reading in the US and a figure of no more than 3% in CAN. USDX technicals are empowered ahead with the depeer break beyond the 200-day MA. Gold may extend its declines on further USD strength, with 1073 being the prelim support.


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