Archived IMT (2010.03.29)

The days of +$1.5300 GBPUSD are behind us for at least 3-4 weeks according to this weekly chart http://chart.ly/58ybcf . While we may see a short term bounce towards $1.50, any rebound is seen limited at $1.53. The impulsive downmove continues to seek the preliminary support of $1.4840, followed by $1.4720 and $1.4380. Those who attempt to short at $1.49 or below and happen to be stopped out at $1.5050s, ought to rethink their margin utilization. We remain negative on EURUSD as we have been since January 4th. We constantly pointed out $1.38 was required to end the downtrend and that has NOT happened. Despite Greeces venturing to the bond market this week, the $5 bond issue is aimed at meeting short-term obligations (April), making all of these manoeuvres a means of surviving from one day to the next. Downside shall open up for $1.3360, followed by $1.3315-20 before the eventual $1.32 and $1.30 before mid April. Upside capped at $1.3470-80, while substantial ceiling stands at $1.3540.