Archived IMT (2010.04.01)

Strong US figures in weekly jobless claims (-6K) & ISM (59.6 from 56.5) but -1.3% in construction spending. USD weakness intensifies as GBPUSD hits $1.5260. The break of the 2 month trend line was accompanied by positive oscillator pattern. $1.5370 is the next resistance facing the rebound, which we expect to fail. The Bank of England continues to keep the door open for fresh QE and the election/fiscal uncertainties in the UK have all but disappeared. Accordingly, we expect renewed decline below $1.50. Gold to probe the 1127 resistance, a close above which could extend back towards 1137. Yen weakness may intensify further on better than expected NFP figure tomorrow. Ashraf is away on travel so updates are less frequent than usual.