Archived IMT (2010.04.26)

EURO GAPPED LOWER to $1.3310 in early Monday Asia before retesting 1.3390s on back-&-forth reports about EU/IMF confident on cementing a Greece deal, but traders cannot ignore the fact that it will take at least 2 weeks for any disbursement from individual Eurozone nations and IMF to take place. TWO THINGS are important: 1) IMF will attempt to disburse its EUR 30 bln first so that it wins time for Athens because it could take longer for Germany to mobilize its EUR 8.3 bln before the May 9 elections. 2) IMF may ask for further austerity measures, beyond those already triggering national strikes. The levels noted in this EURUSD CHART http://chart.ly/dhxw4q are the resistance levels required to be broken and NOT the targets for the euro. We continue to expect a break of $1.31 this quarter, before seeing $1.27-1.28 before end of summer. Bundesbank Chief WEBER to speak today at 16:00 GMT and TRICHET to speak at 16:30 GMT in NY today.