Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.10.07)

by Ashraf Laidi
Oct 7, 2010 2:49

AUSSIE LATEST ASCENT is strengthened by another stellar employment report, showing Sept new jobs +49.5K, twice more than expected, while the unemployment rate remained at 5.1%. Particularly positive is the 55.8K increase in full time jobs. AUDUSD has finally regained the 0.9845-50 all time highs from July 2008. Will todays 0.9845 print once again be the peak? Today's jobs report validates the RBAs decision to keep the door open for further tightening but the cenbank is NOT yet ready to tighten without seeing the Q3 CPI data due later this month. The crucial point here is that a pullback from these levels is likely to be limited around 0.94 before renewed gains are driven by expected QE2 from the Fed and fundamental argument for higher metals. It is true that gold and silver are due for a temporary pullback, but again, temporary is the operant word as fundamentals have not changed. Put another way, if there was a time for AUDUSD to hit 0.9890 & 0.9920s, it is these days and not summer 2008. But I dont think we're ready for a proper break thru parity. That GBPAUD call has gone wrong very fast after going right faster due to BROAD STERLING SELLOFF after NY close. Await UK production data for chances of stabilization. Hedging GBPAUD longs w/ EURAUD shorts is one possibility.


Latest IMTs