Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.11.01)

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 1, 2010 16:18

CABLE DOJI & $USD PLAY. USD BOOSTED BY STRONGER than expected US data on ISM manufacturing, personal spending and construction, with the rationale being decent figures possibly leading the Fed to opt for the lower end of its QE start up i.e. $100-120 bln. Do not forget that todays release of Sep core PCE price fell to a fresh 9-year low of 1.2%, which is the Feds preferred inflation gauge, that is well below its unofficial objective range of 1.5-2.0%. GBPUSD broke above $1.6050 after stronger than expected manuf PMI but we must watch whether the $1.6050-1.6100 becomes a double top w/ mid October. Todays daily chart is already showing a DOJI candle nearing the London close, therefore a CLOSE between 1.6055 & 1.6035 will confirm such a candle to be a bearish reversal for remainder of the week. On the positive side, STERLING INDEX has placed in a bottom and is testing its 55-day MA at 80.50. techs may be slated to test $1.5980 and $1.5940. SPX/VIX Ratio extends decline to 56.2 from last weeks +58 as S&P500 attempts a fresh break above 1190 but VIX refuses to close below 20.


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