Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.01.27)

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 27, 2011 20:25

ALL EYES ON US Q4 GDP due tomorrow expected at +3.5% from 2.6% in Q3, but watch personal expenditure, which could rise by as much as 4.0% showing the highest increase in 4 years (since Q4 2006). Such robust expectations suggest the US recovery is ongoingalbeit sketchy in terms of jobsbut may also mean the consensus sets the market up for a possible disappointment as it raises the bar of expectations. USDJPY seen as the preferred yen cross to gain, with interim resistance at 83.40, followed by 83.80 and downside holds above 82.20 support. NORWEGIAN JAN UNEMP RATE due at 8:00 GMT exp at 2.7% from 2.8%. USDNOK showing possible attempt to regain 5.8050, a break of which to extend gains at 5.86 based on daily stochastics. SWEDISH DEC Retail Sales exp at 4.6% from 5.3%. USDSEK does NOT appear as bullish as USDNOK but is worth a look for the bulls in the event of major disappointment. GOLD HAS FINALLY dropped below 1320, with 1285 considered as the next key target and silver being at 23 (as discussed in Sunday Workshop). ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON EGYPT around Noon GMT with the possibility of anti-presidential demonstrations to escalate after Friday Prayers. Talks that some Generals are calling for Mubarak's ouster (similar to what happened in Tunisia after 23-year of BenAli rule).


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