Archived IMT (2009.01.09)

Although much focus is on US non-farm payrolls side of the labour report, the unemp rate should play a major role in gauging market reaction. December unemployment rate is expected to soar by 0.3 points to 7.0% (highest since June 93), bringing the increase to a hefty 2.0 points between April and December, which is nearly equal the average increase in unemployment rates during past 3 US recessions from trough to peak. In each of the recessions of 1981-2, 1990-91 and 2001-02, the US unemployment rate rose by 3.1, 2.3 and 2.3 points ... Rest of Content Available to Subscribers of Intraday Market Thoughts.