Archived IMT (2009.01.09)

As was warned earlier, the unemployment rate turned out to be the shocker rather than payrolls, soaring by 0.4 points to 7.2% in Dec-- the highest since January 1993. This is the third 0.3-point increase in the unemployment rate in the last five months. December payrolls fell by 524K after a revised 584K decline, bringing the total number of 2008 jobless to 2.6 million, the highest since 1945. The 7.2% unemployment rate in December brings the increase from the 2007 trough of 4.1% to 3.2 points, which is higher than the average difference between unemployment rate troughs and peaks on the last 3 recessions. USDJPY rebound seen capped at 92.20 right shoulder.