USD Firms vs EU FX as US Jobs Blows out Forecasts

The strength of todays jobs report and services ISM attained the rare pattern of triggering a USD rally despite broad advances in US equities. The risk-on-risk-off rule of punishing the US currency during rallying equities does not apply when good news on the US labour front is supported by both a decline in the unemployment rate and a solid improvement in payrolls. Such patterns were rare but not impossible. We saw them in June and November 2009; in each case the USD prevailed. All Pemium shorts hit targets.

The growth argument of the resulting USD rally is better grasped by the fact that USD is rising against non-commodity currencies (EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY), but weaker against the AUD, CAD and NZD.

Todays US data is indisputably solid: 9-month highs in non-farm payrolls (243K), 23-month lows in the unemployment rate (8.3%), 12-month highs in manufacturing payrolls (50K), 9-month highs in private sector payrolls (257K), 11-month highs in services ISM (56.8), 7-month highs in manufacturing ISM (54.1).

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