Intraday Market Thoughts

Chinese Warn Of Fiscal Cliff; TICS Data & IP Is Next

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 16, 2012 12:34

Chinese warning of fiscal cliff; EZ current account declined but trade account rose; Japanese lower house dissolved. Focus is on TIC flows; capacity utilization and industrial production. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.

The greenback is higher across the board in the ongoing session. European equities are losing around 0.5% and the relative strength winner is USD while NZD is the weakest.

The fiscal cliff is in the spotlight again and it is unlikely to change any time soon. Chinese vice finance minister Guangyao said that a failure to solve it would be disastrous to the US, it would be a serious shot to the world economy and it would drag Chinese growth by 1.2 percentage points, MNI reports.

On the data front we learned that Eurozone current account balance declined in September to EUR 0.8 bln from EUR 10.9 bln while the trade surplus rose to EUR 11.3 bln from EUR 8.9 bln.

In other news, UK chancellor Osborne is about to start the second round of interviews for BOE's governorship and Japanese lower house was dissolved which paves way for elections on 12/16.

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with Canadian foreign securities purchases that are expected to rise to CAD 7.45 bln in September from previous CAD 6.9 bln. US TIC flows are due 30 minutes later and they are seen lower at USD 75 bln from USD 90 bln.

Capacity utilization will flash on traders' screens at 9:15 am and it is anticipated marginally higher in October at 78.4% from 78.3% while industrial production is expected to slow to 0.2% from 0.4%.

This week's last risk event is the FOMC member Dennis Lockhart's speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy that is scheduled to start at 3:45 pm ET.

Gold survived one of the 2 stop and is nearing the 1700 figure. The 2 Premium charts on cable explain the reason why 2 longs are in progress, 1 of which is nearing the final target. 5 new charts were added to last nights Premium Insights, including quarterly chart of USDJPY. Timing the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: Non- subscribers can have a free trial here:

Patril Urban


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