Archived IMT (2009.04.10)

Why did the US dollar rally against the euro and sterling these last 2 days despite aggressive rallies in equities and the gap down in the VIX to 7-month lows? Fitch downgrade of Ireland's credit rating helped destabilize the euro from its $1.33 perch, but the collapse in the US trade deficit to a 10-year low of $26 billion in February from $36 billion in January was instrumental in supporting the US currency despite the decline in US imports being the main catalyst to the decline in the deficit. The Canadian dollars resilience has been partially caused by the improvement in risk appetite (USDCADs rising positive correlation with equities) and the return in Canadian trade balance to surplus territory in February from a deficit over the past 3 months. Next weeks array of Chinese data and the IMFs report on global toxic debt will be key in shaping global sentiment.