Intraday Market Thoughts

Brexit Bringdown, RBA Next

by Adam Button
Dec 5, 2017 1:12

Ireland is a fresh thorn in the side of Theresa May as she attempts to score a Brexit victory. The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged. The RBA decision is up next. The EURUSD Premium short was closed for 60-90 pip gain (depending on entry), while a new JPY trade was issued.

من الوظائف الأمريكية إلى البنوك المركزية (أحدث فيديو للمشتركين)

Cable climbed early in trading on Monday on expectations for a breakthrough in EU/UK negotiations. Rumors of a divorce settlement were rampant last week and today was supposed to be the announcement. However, May and Juncker were forced to call off meetings after May's coalition partners from the Irish DUP said they wouldn't accept any form of regulatory divergence between the Britain and Northern Ireland.

The breakdown sent cable more than 100 pips lower on the headlines to just above 1.3400. It eventually bounced to 1.3475 but the quick rise and fall on the day were a reminder of a large intraday risks for GBP traders.

Meanwhile, the optimism from the Trump-Russia story faded in stocks as tech led a retreat. The Nasdaq closed 1% lower in a fresh sign of weakness. The drop came despite the GOP passing tax reform in the Senate and the correction on the ABC story. That's a sign that the good news might be priced in and that markets are increasingly concerned about a hawkish Fed.

USD/JPY followed stocks lower to close near 112.50 after rising above 113.00 early.

Looking ahead, the Australian dollar will be hogging the spotlight. First are the Aussie Q3 current account and October retail sales reports at 0030 GMT. Those are followed by the RBA decision at 0330 GMT. The overwhelming consensus is for no move from the 1.50% cash target and no signs of a shift. We will look for comments on wages and global growth as potential market movers.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Current Account
-9.1B -8.8B -9.7B Dec 05 0:30
BRC Retail Sales Monitor (y/y)
0.6% -1.0% Dec 05 0:01

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