Intraday Market Thoughts

From Shy BoJ to Actionable Fed

by Adam Button
Jul 30, 2019 23:16

The yen edged higher on Tuesday after Kuroda refrained from taking any firm steps toward easing or altering forward guidance. JPY was the top performer on Tuesday while the pound lagged again. The FOMC decision is the big event on Wednesday, but Canadian GDP and US ADP employment are up first. Trade positioning ahead of the Fed decision is covered in the video for Premium susbcribers posted below, titled: "Beyond the Fed's What Ifs" The video includes why Thursday's trade remains valid for the post-Fed playbook.

The BOJ didn't alter its guidance about keep easy policy at least through spring 2020 in what was a mild disappointment for yen bears. Kuroda also avoided any strong hints at action. Instead he emphasized a shift in communication to say the bank now pledges to take action if price momentum is lost, rather than simply considering steps. It's a minor change and especially insignificant compared to the big turns at the Fed, ECB and elsewhere. It led to a modest dip in USD/JPY but was largely ignored as the market dials in on the FOMC. Ashraf expects a retest of 108.90s before a gradual drop towards 107.80s.

The bigger move was once again in the pound as it hit a new two-year low in Asia before flattening near 1.2150. Meetings between Ireland and the UK solved nothing with Johnson insisting the UK will leave on Oct 31 and Varadkar insisting the withdrawal agreement won't be reopened.

Another trend was the divergence in AUD/CAD as oil prices and the proximity to the relatively-strong US economy aid the loonie. In contrast, the Australian dollar fell for the eighth consecutive day and is now within 50 pips of the June low of 0.6832 – a level that's doubly important because it was also the 2016 low.

The FOMC decision follows next, setting the tone for the remainder of the week, making Friday's US jobs figures appear as a distant event. The Fed recieved further indications that the economy is solid as consumer confidence rose to 135.7 compared to 125.0. That's the third-best reading this century. The PCE report was largely in line with expectations but inflation was a touch on the light side and that should embolden those calling for an insurance cut on Wednesday and an effort to get back to 2%.

There are some risks before the FOMC with the ADP report expected to show 150K new jobs, up from 102K a month ago. Canada's May GDP is also on the agenda with a 0.1% rise expected.

Act Exp Prev GMT
GDP (m/m)
0.1% 0.3% Jul 31 12:30
ADP Employment Change
150K 102K Jul 31 12:15
CB Consumer Confidence
135.7 125.1 124.3 Jul 30 14:00

Latest IMTs