Intraday Market Thoughts

Heightened Anticipation

by Ashraf Laidi
Dec 10, 2021 19:32

The heightened anticipation ahead of this week's crucial FOMC, BoE and ECB decisions has been responsible for last week's range-trading pattern in FX, indices and metals. USDJPY is unable to break above 114, EURUSD rests above 1.12 but is capped at 1.14, while XAUUSD is immobile in the 1770/90 wedge and XAGUSD continue to hold 22.0. Only one FX cross has broken out, which we pointed out to our WhatsApp Broadcast Group subscribers and will be 1 of our 2 candicates for FX longs this week. The idea is to avoid USD-pairs out of aversion to surging volatility/noise/mis-interpretations to the Fed dotplot, FOMC statement and Jerome Powell's presser. The chart below shows how the upturn in VVIX/VIX encouraged us to to stay out of indices after the NASDAQ short hit its 16200 target.  Watch the full video on how to use the VVIX/VIX to help anticipate intermediate peaks and bottoms in indices. 

Heightened Anticipation - Vvix Vix Whatsapp Dec 10 2021 (Chart 1)


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