Intraday Market Thoughts

Greenback Is Bid Ahead Of NFP

by Patrik Urban
Jan 4, 2013 12:42

German retail sales rose; Spanish and Italian services PMI improved; Eurozone CPI steady and services PMI unrevised; British services PMI declined and precious metals continue to fall. Market turns to labor market data from US and Canada and to ISM non-manufacturing with factory orders.

The greenback is stronger across the board and European equities are losing around 0.4%.

European data were positive failed to stage any recovery of the common currency. German retail sales rose solid 1.2% in November after falling 1.3% in October, Spanish and Italian services PMI beat expectations and improved m/m; Eurozone CPI was steady at 2.2% and the final reading of Eurozone services PMI was unrevised at 47.8. EUR/USD trades near session lows just a few points above 1.30.

British service sector contracted in December for the first time in nearly two years as the PMI index fell to 48.9 from prior 50.2. This was the fifth decline in a row. New business volumes fell for the second month, employment declined marginally and confidence was unchanged at 11 month low. GBPUSD is weaker trading near 1.6020 and EURGBP is slightly higher around 0.8115.

Precious metals extended their declines that started yesterday. Gold trades around 1632, which is over $60 from Wednesday's highs. Silver lost $2 since Wednesday and trades around 29.40.

The highly anticipated December NFP is due at 8:30 am ET and it is expected to rise to 150K from prior 146K. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.7%. ISM non-manufacturing will flash on screens at 10:00 am and it anticipated to decline marginally in December to 54.2 from previous 54.7. Finally, factory orders are expected to rise 0.3% in November from prior 0.8%.

Canadian labor market data is also due at 8:30 am. The employment is expected to rise only 4K after soaring 59.3K in the prior month and the unemployment rate is forecasted to rise to 7.3% from 7.2%.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Nonfarm Payrolls (DEC)
155K 150K 161K Jan 04 13:30
Retail Sales (NOV) (m/m)
1.2% 0.8% -1.3% Jan 04 7:00
Retail Sales (NOV) (y/y)
-0.9% -1.2% 0.2% Jan 04 7:00
Markit Services PMI (DEC)
48.9 50.5 50.2 Jan 04 9:28
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (DEC)
54.2 54.7 Jan 04 15:00
Markit Services PMI (DEC)
47.8 47.8 46.7 Jan 04 8:58
Markit PMI Composite (DEC)
47.2 47.3 46.5 Jan 04 8:58
Markit Services PMI (DEC)
45.6 45.0 44.6 Jan 04 8:43
Markit Services PMI (NOV)
52.0 52.1 49.7 Jan 04 8:53
Factory Orders (NOV) (m/m)
0.4% 0.8% Jan 04 15:00
Unemployment Rate (DEC)
7.8% 7.7% 7.8% Jan 04 13:30
Unemployment Rate (DEC)
7.1% 7.3% 7.2% Jan 04 13:30
Net Change in Employment (DEC)
39.8K 5.0K 59.3K Jan 04 13:30

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