Intraday Market Thoughts

New Poll Shows ‘No’ Ahead, Loonie Cracks

by Adam Button
Sep 12, 2014 0:17

The latest Scotland poll showed sliding support for independence with the vote a week away. The pound was the best performer on the day while the loonie lagged. The Asia-Pac session will be quiet data-wise to wind down the week. Another poll (ICM) is due on Friday, published by the Guardian newspaper.  Existing Premium trades iclude USDCHF, EURJPY, CADJPY, NZDUSD and NZDCAD.

Cable trading is all about the latest polls and a YouGov survey on Thursday showed support for independence sliding to 48% to 52% for the No side. It's the same firm that showed the Yes side ahead on Sunday so it carries additional weight.

Cable promptly rallied a half cent after the results were released and the pair has now closed most of the week-opening gap. On Friday a poll from ICM Research is due but there's no scheduled release time so traders will be on guard for leaks

The technical move that grabbed our attention Thursday was in USD/CAD as the pair finally closed above 1.10. The move extended all the way to 1.1059 before sliding back to close at 1.1040. The April high of 1.1053 is a level to watch in the day ahead but with the US dollar rally hardly slowing down the Canadian dollar could begin to wilt like its AUD and NZD cousins.

Speaking of the Australian dollar, the turnaround in AUD/USD on Thursday was prolific. A currency that can't rally on good news like the employment report (even if there were caveats) is weak. A currency that hits a 5-month low despite blockbuster jobs data is downright nasty.

Aussie traders will get a chance to take stock in an Asia-Pac session that doesn't feature any top tier data. The next big release to watch is US retail sales. A week ago the dollar dipped on soft non-farm payrolls but ultimately it was a wonderful buying opportunity. Retail sales could be a repeat.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Retail Sales (AUG) (m/m)
0.6% 0.0% Sep 12 12:30
Retail Sales (ex. Autos) (AUG) (m/m)
0.3% 0.1% Sep 12 12:30
Full Employment Change
14.3K 22.9K 15.4K Sep 11 1:30
Unemployment Rate
6.1% 6.3% 6.4% Sep 11 1:30

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