Intraday Market Thoughts

Tonight's Crucial UK Poll

by Adam Button
Nov 27, 2019 17:33

GBP is once again the only gainer vs USD, while the yen is the weakest as sterling  traders shift attention to tonight's crucial MRP UK poll--the only poll of its kind to have correctly predicted a Hung Parliament at the 2017 elections (more below). US economic data came in mostly better than expected in Q3 GDP, jobless claims and durable goods, but the Fed's inflation measure slipped below expectations. The latest Premium video updates on the latest forward indicator regarding indices as well as on how to play GBPUSD ahead of tonight's poll.

Onto the Big Poll at 17:00 Eastern (22:00 London/GMT)

Uk polling agency YouGov will release seat-by-seat details of its highly anticipated poll of next month's UK elections. The Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification is known for being the only poll to have correctly predicted Conservatives' loss of parliamentary majority in 2017, while all other polls predicted a large majority win. The poll uses a sample of 50,000 instead of the 1,000 used by others, breaking down voters by socioeconomic and geographical traits.

GBP bulls are looking for a Conservatives majority percentage margin of at least 8 points, while other details such as the extent of LibDems gains will also help boost the currency. One potentially misleading factor is that of Brexit, which could supersede issues tracked by the model, such as taxes, healthcare and housing.

US Data Bump

The latest US economic data reduce odds of the economy slipping towards a recession, while the Fed should be more deserving of some of the credit for easing pre-emptively. Time will tell if they spent their ammunition too quickly.

One area that's undoubtedly been aided by the central bank is housing and that was clear in a jump in new home sales to a 733K pace in October compared to 705K expected. An upward revision to September data put that month at the highest since 2007.

On the flipside, the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with the Richmond Fed at -1 versus +5 expected. Consumer confidence was also a touch soft at 125.5 compared to 127.0.

Even with those modest misses, the conversation about the economy has changed away from talk about recession and an inverted yield curve to a potential upside swing in 2020 and the climb in housing prices underscores the potential.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m)
0.6% 0.2% -0.4% Nov 27 13:30
Chicago PMI
47.2 43.2 Nov 27 14:45
CB Consumer Confidence
125.5 126.9 126.1 Nov 26 15:00
Fed's Beige Book
Nov 27 19:00

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