US Economy Steaming Ahead, USD Stalled
A round of upbeat US economic data wasn't enough to add a fresh wave of US dollar buying Tuesday. The Australian dollar was the best performer while CHF lagged as global stocks rebounded. The Asia-Pacific calendar is barren. We issued a new set of Premium trades; 2 on EURUSD and 1 on GBPUSD in light of triple moving average confluence in the former and stabilizing 55-MA in the latter. These and more trades in the latest Premium Insights.
The Fed is beginning to prove critics wrong with its upbeat economic forecasts. The number of releases pointed to a strengthening economy.
- Core durable goods orders rose 1.1% compared to 0.5% expected
- June consumer confidence rose to a 4-year high of 81.4 versus 75.1 expected
- The Richmond Fed rose to +8 compared to the +2 consensus
- The Case-Shiller April US home price index rose 1.7% m/m versus 1.2% expected
Equity markets remain a key factor as volatility continues to increase, especially in Asia. The Shanghai Composite fell nearly 6% at one point on Tuesday only to completely rebound. In Japan, the Nikkei is trading 1.5% higher but swings of that magnitude are now common.
Early in Asian trading, USD/JPY has found some upside momentum tracking to 98.15. A break of Monday's high of 98.71 could spark a rush into longs.
Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
---|---|---|---|
Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) | |||
0.7% | -0.1% | 1.7% | Jun 25 12:30 |
Durable Goods Orders (m/m) | |||
3.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | Jun 25 12:30 |
S&P/CS Home Price Indices (APR) (y/y) | |||
12.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | Jun 25 13:00 |
CB Consumer Confidence (JUN) | |||
81.4 | 75.4 | 74.3 | Jun 25 14:00 |
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUN) | |||
8 | -2 | Jun 25 14:00 |
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