Intraday Market Thoughts

Yields Pause, Metals Jump, Dax Breaks out

by Adam Button
Oct 22, 2021 15:36

President Biden said there will be no tax hikes on high earners or US corporations in a blow to his agenda but a boost to US equities. The dollar fell across the board, with both CNHUSD and XAGUSD posting their 3rd biggest weekly gain of the year.  The week ended with stronger Canada retail sales, mixed PMIs in Europe, with US services surprising on the upside but not the case for manufacturing. Gold jumped more than $30 to 1812, reaching the target of the inverted head-&-shoulders first signalled on Oct 8th to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group below. More specifically, the GoldBugs ratio fell below its 100 DMA and 21 WMA as alerted in last week's Youtubevideo. The subsequent posts show the progress of the trade as well as in XAGUSD. A new Premium trade was posted earlier today. Heads up for Powell's speech at 11:00 am Eastern (15:00 GMT).

Yields Pause, Metals Jump, Dax Breaks out - Whatsapp Gold Post Oct 22 2021 (Chart 1)

Biden relayed on US TV late Thursday that Democratic Sen Sinema said she will block any tax raises at all on corporations or high earners. Perhaps that's a tactic to put pressure on her but it likely means that avenue for raising funds for a reconciliation package is done.

It will likely mean a considerably smaller package but ongoing low taxes will maintain the US corporate advantage and keep money flowing into dollars. We will continue to keep a close eye on what comes next and the potential fallout.

In the bigger picture on Thursday, there was a retracement in yen weakness that ran counter to continued stock market gains and the rise in bond yields. It's likely to be a standard dip after an extended one-way move but it bears watching closely on Friday in case it's foreshadowing a broader market move.

Economic data continues to send positive signals with a strong US existing home sales report on Thursday and a new cycle low in initial jobless claims.

For Canada, the final piece of economic data ahead of next week's BOC will be the August retail sales report. That sector has been a drag in Q3 while the rest of the economy hums. It would take an especially weak print to spoil a hawkish turn from the BOC.


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