أشرف ألعايدي على قناة سي إن بي سي العربية -- 06 يونيو 2012

Jun 6, 2012 19:36

Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia that the latest downgrades of 7 German and Austrian banks may be merely a sign of partial exposure to faulty loans in Central and Eastern Europe, but the drag from Southern Europe on Germany remains a matter of concern. This is seen in all of Germany's surveys (investor, economic, consumer and industrial), all of which are at or nearing contraction territory. Much of these macro charts are looking increasingly similar to late 2007, early 2008. The current bounce in risk appetite at the expense of USD is here to stay, but for how long? And will it be followed by a 100-pt consolidation until the next barrage of policy solutions? Click here for direct access to today's edition:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=644 Click here to subscribe: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Latest IMT - Dec 18

Bank of Japan Massacre or Yawn?

It does not matter the Bank of Japan will raise rates to a 30-year high. It also unlikely to cause a violent unwiding of the carry trade as was the case in August 2024? Why? First of all, Friday's 25-bp hike in the overnight rate to 0.75% is widely anticipated and will not be a surprise as in August 2024. Also remember, we had a rate hike in January, which was harmless in scale and in anticipation. Secondly, stock markets are well below their highs, meaning they're not at their peaks as was the case in August 2024, when they were vulnerable to any pricking from the Japanese needle. BoJ Governor Ueda, shall temper market fears, by indicating that the new 0.75% rate is well below the neutral rate, which is around 1.0%. This means 0.75% is not at all hawkish. If anything, it remains too low. Once Ueda asserts this point, while assuring no rush in future rate hikes --markets are likely to take it in stride. TIMINGS: BoJ announcements are usually between 3-4 am GMT, followed by the important press conference around 4.5 hrs later.

Also keep an eye on a possible SCOTUS ruling on Trump Tariffs. More detail here: https://x.com/alaidi/status/2001642347885662277

Latest Hot-Chart - Dec 17

EURGBP & Bank of England Today's weaker than expected UK CPI sharply boosted EURGBP and dragged down GBPUSD on improved expectations the BoE will cut rates tomorrow (Thursday). View Hot-Chart..

Intermarket Analytics

21-yr Intermarket Charts - 7 indices 11 currencies 14 commodities Chart

21-yr Intermarket Charts - 7 indices 11 currencies 14 commodities Interactive charting by instrument, chronological and alphabetical order. This enables organizing each individual commodity, currency or equity index' performance by magnitude or chronological order. View..