أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 20 ديسمبر2012
Dec 20, 2012 16:45
We have seen 2 of the 3 requirements for yen weakness; i) increased asset purchases (up by another 10 trn yen), ii) rising equities. The 3rd factor will have to be rising bond yields. In order for this to happen, the BoJ will have to explicitly redefine price stability in its charter to say "2% in the medium term" and not just in the long term.
On the fiscal cliff negotiations, President Obama may be using Rpeublicans' awkward backing of pro-gun laws in his talks about taxing the rich and sending cuts. Regardless of the progress made in the talks, any fear of a disagreement by year-end is unlikely to weigh on markets, which are boosted by central banks' enthusiasm to ease and look the other way from inflation targets.
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The current decline in oil prices has accelerated the decline in USDJPY as Japan is one of the world's biggest oil importers. Some oil charts are showing a potential for a double top. Those who missed the move in USDPY, should tread carefully. The pair broke below the 55 and 100 DMA in a single day to register its biggest percentage decline since December 2022 of more than 2.5% . DXY is down 0.8%, its fastest daily percentage decline since March 19. Shorting USDJPY at this point is risky as it is resting on the trendline support from the April 2025 low. Do not short USDJPY below155.80/80.
For US crude oil, however, currently trading at 104.15, the the next trendline support stands at $102.00, withe the potential of seeing a $101.30 print.
Keep an eye on Brent oil, which is already resting on the trendline support (see chart) at $114.00. A close below $111.00, could become the driver of other energy prices and trigger a sub $100 in crude.
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