Ashraf Laidi on AlArabiya PSI, Gold & Debt - Mar 03, 2012
Mar 4, 2012 1:13
Ashraf speaks with AlArabiya's Nadine Hani on the Private Sector Initiative offer for Greece, saying that at least 75% of creditors have to accept the deal, otherwise the nation will be unable to meet its € 14 bln payment due March 20. Greece is hoping that between 80% and 90% of creditors will approve the deal.
Ashraf also covers the latest selloff in metals, attributing it to Bernanke's inflation reference in last week's speech, which dampened expectations for QE3. He reminds that the euro and metals had been consistently boosted by anticipation of QE3 from the US as well central bank injections (BoE, ECb & BoJ), and any speeches or market dynamics hinting the contrary, would be detrimental to the single currency, which continues to suffer from ongoing structural challenges.
More on Ashraf's charts regarding gold, silver and euro, click on this detailed analysis: http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/gold-silver-face-the-fed.asp
The odds of a Fed rate cut in January fell from 17% earlier in the day to 11% after the release of better than expected Services ISM and somewhat disappointing JOLTS survey on jobs openings. The chart below shows the graphs for expectations of a Fed rate cut for January (Green) and March (White). Focusing on the green graph, see how the probability of a January rate cut fell from 27% in mid December to 11% today, during which the DXY rose while gold also rose. Here is what I think: Even if the Fed ends up holding rates unchanged, expect gold and equities to be propped by an upcoming announcement from Donald Trump revealing his pick for the Fed chairmanship. Looking ahead. Keep an eye on $4400 and $70 as support for gold and silver respectively, with 1.1645 foundation for EURUSD. For equity indices, expect more gains into mid January for now. Take a look at AAOIhere
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