Ashraf Laidi on AlArabiya Talking Euro & Gold - Dec 12, 2011

Dec 12, 2011 20:38

Ashraf Laidi telling AlArabiya of that week's warning about a break in the EURUSD's consolidation has yet to unfold and that gold is due for further losses towards $1600s. Also, on how the sell-off in the once safe-haven metal has been triggered by the activation of safety & raising of cash during the uncertainty, such as today's negative guidance by Intel and the growth/credit rating warning from Fitch at a time when S&P was anticipated to unfold to follow-up on last week's "group" warning. When asked about the SOLUTION to the Eurozone debt problem, the answer given is aggressive participation by China & Brazil into the latest bilateral contributions to the IMF, currently totaling € 200 bln, and raise the amount by at least € 150 bln.

Latest IMT - Dec 18

Bank of Japan Massacre or Yawn?

It does not matter the Bank of Japan will raise rates to a 30-year high. It also unlikely to cause a violent unwiding of the carry trade as was the case in August 2024? Why? First of all, Friday's 25-bp hike in the overnight rate to 0.75% is widely anticipated and will not be a surprise as in August 2024. Also remember, we had a rate hike in January, which was harmless in scale and in anticipation. Secondly, stock markets are well below their highs, meaning they're not at their peaks as was the case in August 2024, when they were vulnerable to any pricking from the Japanese needle. BoJ Governor Ueda, shall temper market fears, by indicating that the new 0.75% rate is well below the neutral rate, which is around 1.0%. This means 0.75% is not at all hawkish. If anything, it remains too low. Once Ueda asserts this point, while assuring no rush in future rate hikes --markets are likely to take it in stride. TIMINGS: BoJ announcements are usually between 3-4 am GMT, followed by the important press conference around 4.5 hrs later.

Also keep an eye on a possible SCOTUS ruling on Trump Tariffs. More detail here: https://x.com/alaidi/status/2001642347885662277

Latest Hot-Chart - Dec 17

EURGBP & Bank of England Today's weaker than expected UK CPI sharply boosted EURGBP and dragged down GBPUSD on improved expectations the BoE will cut rates tomorrow (Thursday). View Hot-Chart..

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