UK Inflation at 3 ½ year lows, UK unemployment at 4 year lows and the currency is at 3-year highs. In fact, the pound is posting is best 7-month period since the 17% posted in March-October 2009, when global markets were ignited by joint BoE-Fed quantitative easing to the benefit of risk currencies such as GBP. Lower inflation usually implies a weaker currency, but in the case of the UK, the steady decrease in CPI has occurred in tandem with the sharpest decline in unemployment since the late 1990s.
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The widely anticipated Fed decision to hold rates unchanged means that December 2025 was the final rate cut under the Fed chairmanship of Jerome Powell. He has two FOMC meetings left to chair (March and May with no meeting shcheduled for April). Most notable about yesterday is that the FOMC statement was less dovish than Powell's press conference. The evidence lies in the 10-15 mins charts, showing EURUSD and gold dropping a bit after the FOMC statement, which noted improvements in growth and employment. Once Powell struck a dovish tone in his press conference, gold stabilized, and took off rapidly after Powell wrapped it up. تم تقسيم الفيديو الى أجزاء زمنية
The other point helping metals was the lack of any substantial comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent about supporting the US dollar. The fact that there was no explicit remarks favouring the USD strenbth, extended the status quo. Saying the US did not interevene in capping USDJPY was not enough.
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