Neither Russian nor other depositors in Cyprus must receive Cyprus announcement to tax bank accounts as a surprise as these warnings emerged back in December from Germany --at a time when the media was busy with the US Fiscal Cliff and Greece's successful bond swap operation.
Gold vs USD breaks its first 5-month string of losses (longest since 1997) and may be targeting 1625-28 before month-end. Yet, the faster-momentum pattern is in Gold vs. EUR; breaking an 18-week downward trendline and highlights similar upside as in May 2012 (Greek election impasse) and Nov-Dec 2011 (Italy debt selloff and political uncertainty). As the ascending weekly stochastics gain in strength, we could well see a break above the 100-WMA of 1250 and an extension towards 1,285. In order for EURUSD not to lose support below 1.2820-30, we will have to see a follow-up in Gold/USD towards 1645/50.
As gold regains $2000/oz for the third time over the past three years, it's important to distinguish the fundamental and intermarket dynamics for each of these three occasions ($2000/oz) before assessing the road ahead. There are endless combinations of metrics to be used in comparing August 2020, March 2022 and today. I will use the DXY, gold/silver ratio, Fed Funds rate and the Fed's Balance Sheet.
