أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 06 أغسطس 2013
Aug 6, 2013 16:43
. ??????? ??????? ??????? ????????? ???? ???? ?? ????? "???? ??? ???????" ???? ??????? ??? ???? ???????? ??? ??????? ???????? ???? ?????? ????. ???? ?? ????. ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ?????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ???????? 2.0 %.
???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ??????? ??????? ???? ?? 2.0% ??? ?? ???? ?? 4 ?????. ??? ????? ?? ?????? ?????? ??? 2.2% ?? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ???? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ??. ?? ????? ?????? ??????? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ????? ??????? ??? ????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????? ????? ????? ???????.
????? ??? ????? ????? ?? ?????? ??? ?????? ??? ??? 2.0% ??????? ??????? ??? "???? ???????"? ????? ???? ??????? ???? ?? ??????? ?? ?? ??????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ????? ?? "???? ???? ??????".
The only bit of forward guidance from Carney's BoE has been the indication that current gilt yields were too high. That is not enough. Carney will have to introduce an additional policy objective besides the 2.0% inflation target.
UK annual inflation has been above 2.0% for nearly 4 years. Despite halving inflation to 2.2% last autumn, the BoE has yet to meet its mandated target. At next week's inflation report, we expect Carney to introduce growth-oriented targets, such as employment metrics or loans to the private sector, enabling the Monetary Policy Committee to stimulate hesitant growth without focusing attention on a single price target at the expense of sacrificing vital growth.
As long as Mr. Carney insists that inflation will recede back towards 2.0% and uses terms such as "escape velocity", bond traders can be assured that monetary policy is far from "maxed out".
As gold regains $2000/oz for the third time over the past three years, it's important to distinguish the fundamental and intermarket dynamics for each of these three occasions ($2000/oz) before assessing the road ahead. There are endless combinations of metrics to be used in comparing August 2020, March 2022 and today. I will use the DXY, gold/silver ratio, Fed Funds rate and the Fed's Balance Sheet.
