Ashraf reiterates his bearish case for GBP and bullish stance for EUR, discussed in his Premium Insights on January 16. He points out the UK's inability to boost growth via austerity and rising probability of renewed QE by the BoE.
Ashraf also talks about the firming support for gold and he confluence between key moving averages and 5--year trendline. Upside seen sufficient to produce 1730-50 before momentum reaches a new juncture.
From the Jan 16 Premium Insights on GBPUSD:
"The divergence between GBPUSD and EURUSD is reflected in our ongoing bullishness in EURGBP, which started back in October. Although the June trendine support remains intact, we anticipate a break of the support to extend towards the 100WMA (1.5960). This requires a decline under 1.60, which would be the first since late November. The negative convergence between the weekly and monthly charts highlights the medium term negative outlook for the pair. We will be targeting initial support at 1.5960, followed by 1.5910, which is just above the 55-WMA and 200-WMA of 1.5870 and 1.5840 respectively."
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I broke down the video below intoTime Stampsfor easier subject selection.
The widely anticipated Fed decision to hold rates unchanged means that December 2025 was the final rate cut under the Fed chairmanship of Jerome Powell. He has two FOMC meetings left to chair (March and May with no meeting shcheduled for April). Most notable about yesterday is that the FOMC statement was less dovish than Powell's press conference. The evidence lies in the 10-15 mins charts, showing EURUSD and gold dropping a bit after the FOMC statement, which noted improvements in growth and employment. Once Powell struck a dovish tone in his press conference, gold stabilized, and took off rapidly after Powell wrapped it up. تم تقسيم الفيديو الى أجزاء زمنية
The other point helping metals was the lack of any substantial comments from US Treasury Secretary Bessent about supporting the US dollar. The fact that there was no explicit remarks favouring the USD strenbth, extended the status quo. Saying the US did not interevene in capping USDJPY was not enough.
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