أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 24 اكتوبر 2012

Oct 24, 2012 16:08

Ashraf points out Euro markets (FX & bonds) are showing the opposite behaviour from earlier this summer, being the last to sell-off during risk aversion, while back in May-July, euro FX & bonds were the last to stabilize during rallying equity markets. 1.2940 trendline continues to hold as far as the NY close and 1680s and 30.80 are the support levels for gold and silver respectively. Metals will continue to outperform energy. Also mention word of the Aussie starting to outperform the Canadian dollar as the latter is weighed down by the BoC warnings and Canada's govt rejection of the Malaysian-owned Petronas' takeover bid of Progress Energy Resources.

Latest IMT - Dec 18

Bank of Japan Massacre or Yawn?

It does not matter the Bank of Japan will raise rates to a 30-year high. It also unlikely to cause a violent unwiding of the carry trade as was the case in August 2024? Why? First of all, Friday's 25-bp hike in the overnight rate to 0.75% is widely anticipated and will not be a surprise as in August 2024. Also remember, we had a rate hike in January, which was harmless in scale and in anticipation. Secondly, stock markets are well below their highs, meaning they're not at their peaks as was the case in August 2024, when they were vulnerable to any pricking from the Japanese needle. BoJ Governor Ueda, shall temper market fears, by indicating that the new 0.75% rate is well below the neutral rate, which is around 1.0%. This means 0.75% is not at all hawkish. If anything, it remains too low. Once Ueda asserts this point, while assuring no rush in future rate hikes --markets are likely to take it in stride. TIMINGS: BoJ announcements are usually between 3-4 am GMT, followed by the important press conference around 4.5 hrs later.

Also keep an eye on a possible SCOTUS ruling on Trump Tariffs. More detail here: https://x.com/alaidi/status/2001642347885662277

Latest Hot-Chart - Dec 17

EURGBP & Bank of England Today's weaker than expected UK CPI sharply boosted EURGBP and dragged down GBPUSD on improved expectations the BoE will cut rates tomorrow (Thursday). View Hot-Chart..

Intermarket Analytics

21-yr Intermarket Charts - 7 indices 11 currencies 14 commodities Chart

21-yr Intermarket Charts - 7 indices 11 currencies 14 commodities Interactive charting by instrument, chronological and alphabetical order. This enables organizing each individual commodity, currency or equity index' performance by magnitude or chronological order. View..