Search

ANOTHER REASON WHY JAPAN WONT INTERVENE. In addition to the several reasons why Japan is unlikely to engage in yen-selling intervention (I mentioned those in countless interviews and IMTs found on this website) is that the currency is NO LONGER MOVING RAPIDLY. Yes, the yen is strong, standing at...

The inevitability of further asset purchases from the Fed, BoE, ECB and BoJ enhance the case for gold and silver. ...

ECBs WEBER ROCKS THE EURO with some hawkish comments after saying ECB discussions revolving around removing monetary stimulus around Q1 2011. Irish 10yr yield spreads over Germany back up to 390 bps. While the 1.2730-40 support has been broken intraday, a weekly break would signify 1.2550s. CAD...

CANADA JUL CPI is the only data item of the day, further inflation softening could add to CAD selling especially in the event of prolonged declines in appetite. Watch the annual core CPI (exp at 1.8% from 1.7%). USDCAD 3-hr shows immediate TL resistance at 1.0420, a break of which seen extending...

WATCH BoE MINUTES: Wednesdays release of the minutes from the August MPC meeting could add to GBP losses. The currency has been hit hard after Tuesdays unexpectedly weak July CPI (see earlier IMT for detail). The inflation story is a big deal. For the past 4 months, strong UK inflation was the...

GBPUSD RESTS RIGHT ON THE 2-month trend line support at $1.5565-70, following the all-important July inflation figures (see prev IMT). This is the GBPUSD equivalent of last weeks EURUSD trendline support, which held up at $1.3740s. GBPUSD does remain above its 200-day MA ($1.55), but has yet to...

THE BULLISH HAMMER CANDLE I referred to in yesterdays IMT 3 hrs before the NY close may be materializing in both the S&P500 and the Dow-30. Such a pattern is usually bullish, which means we can see brief run-up into the next 2-3 days, with the 1095 and 10400 objectives in S&P500 and Dow-30...

Despite todays inflation data for July showing CPI falling to its lowest level since November 2009, Bank of England governor Mervyn King will still be obliged to write his now somewhat customary letter to the Chancellor to explain the price overshoot. Even retail prices which has been the...

WHAT A DIFFRENCE 24-Hrs MAKES. Recapping why the stocks are down and both USD and JPY are up; MORE CHINESE DATA DISAPPOINTMENT sent Asian & European equities lower after a brief reprieve to risk appetite in late Tuesday US following the Feds announcement to buy more treasuries. US dollar was fired...

AUSSIE may be firming up against USD and JPY but is sharply lower against European currencies after softer than expected Aussie Q2 CPI (0.6% q/q vs exp 0.9% and 3.1% on y/y basis), which is boosting EURAUD as warned in prior IMT; Improved stochastics and appearance of double bottom is calling for...

Tonight's Aussie Q2 CPI (1:30 GMT) will be key in providing clues on the next RBA decision but the tricky part comes in the mixed showing of q/q and y/y data. Mondays Q2 PPI showed softer than expected q/q PPI at 0.3% but a higher 1.0% on y/y basis. See Monday's PPI in calendar here: ...

UK July CBI Shot up to a 3-year high at +33 from -5.0 vs. expectations of 0.0, lifting cable back to $1.55 & dragging EURGBP below 0.84. A breach above 1.5520 is likely to extend gains towards 1.5570-80. EURGBP 4-hr stochastics showing negative cross-lover, suggesting 0.8330 to loom large. CADJPY...

CAD ATTEMPTS RESILIENCY in the face of softer than expected Canadian June annual CPI at 1.0% from Mays 1.4%, with annual core slipping to 1.7% from 1.8%. Not enough risk aversion is occurring for USDCAD to break above the Jul 20 trend line resistance of 1.0450 just as yesterdays 1 June trend lien...

UK Q2 GDP KNOCKS IT OUT OF THE PARK, rising 1.1% q/q vs. expected +0.5%, and +1/6% y/y vs. exp +1.1%. This is the first annual rise in 8 quarters. Services sector rose 0.9% q/q highest since Q1 2007. Although the FTSE-100 is up only 2 pts, there is sufficient risk appetite (from Asia) to boost...

Yen strength is here to stay especially as the US dollar's safe-haven lustre is eroded by the worsening US data. ...

JPY IS STRONGEST OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY GBP in early Thursday European trade as Chinas Q2 GDP growth slows to 10.3% from 11.9% in Q1. 13 hours after the Federal Reserve downgraded its 2010 and 2011 forecasts for US growth and inflation, Beijing publishes evidence of slowing growth and inflation....

UK UNEMPLOYMENT fell by 20.8K in June after a 31K decline in May with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.5%--lowest since March 2009. The robust figures may not dispel doubts over the impact of upcoming decline in falling public sector jobs. The weaker than expected 2.7% increase in average...

USD EXTENDS LOSSES on intensifying risk bounce as GBP, CHF and CAD outperform major currencies. GBP EXTENDS GAINS above $1.51 as the focus on the 3.1% reading in CORE CPI overshadowed the retreat in the headline CPI to 3.2% y/y. $1.5140s appear vulnerable to a $1.5220 in the event that Intel...

MOODYS DOWNGRADED PORTUGAL by 2 notches to A1 with a stable outlook, prompting broad downside pressure on EUR, but the run-up in equities is boosting EUR back towards $1.2570s from its 1.2520s session lows. GBPUSD rallies by full cent despite retreat in June CPI to 3.2% from 3.7%. Cable eyes...

CHINESE BABY STEPS wikk likely be the way of any yuan strengthening against USD after Beijing announced more flexibility in their FX peg regime. China allowed the yuan to rise 0.43% on Monday, which is close to the maximum daily permissible fluctuation of 0.5%. China could allow more of such...

FROM PRETORIA: Ashraf attending the World Cup but finding time to tweet (twitter.com/alaidi) and send some IMTs. Just when the euro was extending its rally on broadening risk appetite, Moody's hits Greece with a downgrade into junk status. EURUSD loses a full cent from its $1.23 high despite...

ECB Intervention is inevitable, Gold set to catch down with other commodities & Aussie to way down under...

GBP drops across the board despite the highest annual CPI since Nov 2008 (3.7%). The bulk of sterlings climb occurred ahead of the figures before Cable dropped a full cent to $1.4430. Traders are not only confident in the Bank of Englands repetitive calls that rising UK inflation will be...

USDCAD daily oscillators remain positive despite the failure of the 1.0430 high, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the decline from the May 6 high. The 24% slump in oil below $75 level is clearly reducing the once positive bias in CAD. 4-Hour chart may suggest a possible retreat towards...

USD stabilizes from day's highs as US equities attempt getting back into the black but disappointing NY Empire Manufacturing data could weigh on abny recovery in risk appetite. GBPUSD hit the $1.4250 target from overnight IMT. Tomorrow's UK CPI figures will determine the extent of cable's...

The 4% Monday rally in US equities resulted into a 4% Tuesday selloff in Shanghai and 1% selloff in the Nikkei, before European bourses sank in the red with 1.6% and 1.1% declines in the FTSE and the Dax. Despite better than expected UK manufacturing figures, UK markets remain jittery due to the...

RBA SET TO RAISE rates by 25-bps to 4.50% tonight (4:30 GMT), which could give a short-term boost to the Aussie, but once again, it is the tone of the statement that could help shape the Aussies direction. Last week's release of the 2.9% rise in Q1 CPI was the highest in 5 quarters. Nothing in...

GOLD STAND OUT FROM COMMODITY DAMAGE as the yellow metal soars over $25 to hit new 2010 high at 1172. But the fact that silver, copper and oil each fell sharply today, underlines the knee-jerk reaction of safe-haven buying after the Greece-Portugal downgrades and the questioning of Goldman Sachs....

CANADA CPI & RETAIL SALES Both weaker than expected. CAN CPI Softer than expected, slowing to 1.4% y/y in March from 1.6%, with the BoCs annual core CPI down to 1.7% from 2.1% vs exp 1.9%. Canada Mar retail +0.5% from +0.7% vs. expected 1.1%, while core sales from -0.1%. USDCAD eyes 1.0070, but...

GBPAUD consolidation enters its 4th week, but a perfect storm aiding the cross would be a favourable GBP outcome from tonights UK election debate as well as soft Aussie data, such as weak CPI next week. Tory officials have been vocal at indicating that a strong showing by the LDP would drag the...