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ECBs WEBER ROCKS THE EURO with some hawkish comments after saying ECB discussions revolving around removing monetary stimulus around Q1 2011. Irish 10yr yield spreads over Germany back up to 390 bps. While the 1.2730-40 support has been broken intraday, a weekly break would signify 1.2550s. CAD...

US NEW HOME SALES shot up 23.6% in June (highest rise since 1980) following a revised decline of 36.7% in June. The decline the supply of new homes to 7.6 months from 9.6 months is also helping to lift equities at the expense of JPY and USD. Extended gains in risk appetite boost EURUSD to $1.2955;...

US JUNE NONFARM PAYROLLS -125K from +433K, Unemp. rate DROPS to 9.5% from 9.7% (vs exp 9.8%), Average Weekly Hours flat at 33.4. Euro continues to rally across the board, eyeing the $1.2660 target (prev IMT), while JPY rebounds to gain versus all currencies (except EUR). USDCAD looks to retest...

The last three months have been fairly volatile ones for equity markets in general and certainly the first quarter of 2010 began promisingly, however the two months since April 2010 after promising much, has delivered nothing but sharp declines as early optimism over economic recovery has given...

Over the years we have seen the stock market make some pretty exciting moves for share holders. This year alone there have been some interesting events unfold causing wild market swings which most of us did not think could happen. Things like countries going bankrupt and the May flash crash. Also...

Equity markets have continued to trade in a fairly volatile range over the past weeks gyrating between their lows and significant resistance levels at or around their 200 day moving averages as well as significant Fibonacci resistance levels. Moodys downgrade of Greece to junk status, following...

NZD IS DAYs HIGHEST PERFOMER after the RBNZs 25-bp rate hike, which lifted NZDJPY and NZDUSD to 62.20 and 0.6816 respectively. AUD, NOK and CHF follow behind as strong performers. IT WAS RARE to see Asian stocks rally despite late session turnaround in US indices. Robust jobs figures in Australia...

USD DOLLAR INDEX LOOKING FOR ITS 7th MONTHLY CONSECUTIVE increase, the longest winning streak since the history of the 39-year old index. Watch Ashraf's appearance on CNBC earlier today http://bit.ly/bg7l7d EURGBP deepens losses after to the lows of Nov 2008 at 0.8220s, showing no respite...

SELLING EXTENDS IN FRIDAY US ALL TARGETS in previous IMT either hit or 10 pips away from their objectives; AUDUSD, EURUSD and CADJPY as Dow tests 10K. We now expect EURUSD to hit 1.1630-50 by June 16. For today/Monday, USDCAD looks for 1.0570, while AUDCAD 0.86 prelim target rmeains viable as...

GBP or CAD? We noted yesterday CADJPY and GBPJPY were the likely aggressive gainers on a combination of Japanese political uncertainty, improved risk appetite and robust UK and CA data. GBPJPY breaks above May 10 trend line, now eyeing 135.90, while CADJPY could potentially extend gains towards...

DENIAL IS GOOD? Denial by China and Kuwait that they are not unloading EUR-assets is the most popular fundamental explanation for the rebound in stocks + risk currencies, but technically, major US indices needed more fear to post a close below their "flash crash" lows of May 6 lows. We must...

The recent declines in equity markets over the past couple of weeks have prompted some investor nervousness about the sustainability of the recent rally of the last 14 months. Weve certainly seen corrections similar to this over the past few months and the market has proved remarkably...

UNCONFIRMED RUMOURS that Goldman Sachs has settled with the SEC are said to be boosting equities and the risk trade at the expense of the USD and JPY. Dow rallies +200 pts from its pre-open low. Todays passing of the German rescue bill at the Upper House of parliament will attempt to lift EURUSD...

The 4% Monday rally in US equities resulted into a 4% Tuesday selloff in Shanghai and 1% selloff in the Nikkei, before European bourses sank in the red with 1.6% and 1.1% declines in the FTSE and the Dax. Despite better than expected UK manufacturing figures, UK markets remain jittery due to the...

CONFLICTIVE US JOBS FIGURES leading to sharp FX whipsaws and little direction. April payrolls soared +290K while March was revised to +230K from +162K, but the unemployment rate rose to 9.9% from 9,7% against expectations of a decline to 9.6%. Dow futures are holding onto gains but any...

ATHENS VIOLENCE OVERSHADOWS TRADING despite April ADP payrolls growing by 32K, the highest since Jan 2008 and the March figure was revised to +19K from prev -32K. Intensifying violence in Athens, attempts to storm Greek Parliament and 3 people reported dead at the riots. These news give rise to...

BOTH S&P500 and DJIA FAIL TO CLOSE above their 200-Week MAs. S&P never touched its 200-weem MA of 1225, while the Dow managed only an intraweek close above the its 200-week MA before moving below it. S&P500 however, will end the month HIGHER despite a monthly DECLINE in BRAZILs BOVESPA index. This...

US earnings season has continued to push equity markets higher over the past week with companies beating expectations across the board. However the revelation that Goldman Sachs is under investigation by the SEC for improper behaviour has created uncertainty in the financial sector, has...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has likely put in an intermediate top. Monday's failure at a key Fibonacci retracement at 11245 (61.8% of the 2007 high to the 2009 low) managed to form a doji candlestick, which indicates indecisiveness at an overbought juncture. The Dow now looks to have...

GOLD and SILVER facing their trend line resistance as other metals extend their selloff. GOLD capped at 1153, while SILVER attempts to show the same pattern shown in mid Jan but facing trend line resistance at 18.35 from current 18.05. Can these metals break the trend line resistance considering...

Peaks in Baltic Dry Index has once again lead the tops in metals & fuel, while S&P500 and the Dow struggle at their latest barriers. ...

FRIDAY's 14% SPIKE IN THE VIX suggests that Fridays declines in US equity indices might not be a 1-day event. Each of the last +8% spikes in the VIX (Jan 20th and Feb 4th) involved a decline of at least 5% and lasting at least 1 week in US major indices. One UNUSUAL DEVELOPMENT in the recent rally...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (and S&P 500) is forming the fifth wave within a five-wave up-move off the March 2009 low. According to Elliot Wave International, bullish sentiment has reached an extreme with roughly 92% of participants bullish on equities. Bearish MACD & RSI divergence is...

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just confirmed a 2-day double top (Monday/Tuesday's highs) and negative diverging daily oscillators should continue to weigh. Losing 9-day MA support near 10900 suggests a broader correction is in play. 2. The VIX is pausing at familiar level near the 16...

The fact that copper prices have made 19 month highs has buoyed mining stocks and kept a floor under equity markets in the short term. The Dow looks like it could test 11,000 and the FTSE100 looks as if it could test 5,800. Trading has been a little listless in the run up to Easter so far this...

Last week the general market continued to grind its way higher for yet another week. Overall I feel the market is very much over bought. We all know the market can stay in extreme overbought levels for extended periods of time making it very difficult to pick tops. This is the reason I do not...

USD shows shades of 2 days ago when its isolated rally vs. EUR and GBP extended into commodity currencies. Euro is quickly dragged back below $1.33 after failing $1.34, making the preliminary target of $1.3220 viable in Asia. Cable shrugs those strong UK retail sales to get closer towards the...

USDCAD testing the Oct 2009 lows of 1.0220 as CAD soars against all major currencies, with the exception of AUD and JPY. Multi-decade highs in CAD vs. NOK and GBP. Tomorrows CAN Feb jobs report expected at 15K from 43K and the unemployment rate seen at 8.2% from 8.3%. Winter Olympics-related...

So far this week has been pretty slow. Large cap stocks continue to lag the market which can be observed by looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average which still has room to move higher before breaking the January high. One important thing to note is that volume has picked up this week...

On the cycles of the S&P500 / VIX ratio and the stabilizing cost of USD 3-month LIBOR relative to its yen counterpart. ...