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ANOTHER REASON WHY JAPAN WONT INTERVENE. In addition to the several reasons why Japan is unlikely to engage in yen-selling intervention (I mentioned those in countless interviews and IMTs found on this website) is that the currency is NO LONGER MOVING RAPIDLY. Yes, the yen is strong, standing at...

USDX DROPS As Feds message was not lost in translation as it announced a fresh dose of treasury purchases from the principal payments of Agency securities. The resulting selloff in the US dollar and bounce in equities reflected the markets clear understanding that QE2 has been unveiled. =======...

The single currency has managed to make a significant recovery off its recent lows around the 1.1880 level set at the beginning of June. The failure to sustain a move below 1.2145, the 50% Fibonacci support level of the up move from the 0.8270 to 1.6020 has managed to stabilise the single...

GBP REMAINS PRESSURED after the resignation of UK Chief Treasury Secretary (second to Chancellor of Exchequer) over illegal expenses. Mr Laws is credited with engineering the 6 bln in planned budget cuts. GBPUSD eyeing trendline resistance from Apr 26 high at $1.4580, followed by $1.4630....

AUSSIEs WOES REMAIN as long as equities present NO better reason for a rebound other than Goldman Sachs settling with the SEC. Interim resistance stands at 0.8330s, but more immediate target stands at 0.8250, followed by 0.8190 and 0.80 as warned in last weeks article http://bit.ly/b899jl 0.78...

1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average just confirmed a 2-day double top (Monday/Tuesday's highs) and negative diverging daily oscillators should continue to weigh. Losing 9-day MA support near 10900 suggests a broader correction is in play. 2. The VIX is pausing at familiar level near the 16...

In a year that will end dramatically different than it began, the US Dollar emerged as a focal point amongst global investors. In the final days of 2009 there is a renewed sense of optimism and hope for continued economic recovery, a far cry from investor's nervousness and skepticism that...

Time for US dollar to regain some composure, especially against the sterling, whose 2010 fortunes for the year appear dismal at best....

ANOTHER FRIDAY, ANOTHER YEN DAY. Business TV may be busy talking about the rebounding US dollar, but once again, the yen remains the best performer during these days of risk-aversion (falling stocks) just as was the case in the last 3 Fridays. The case for continued yen strength remains based...

Yesterday the Dow Jones made new highs as did the S&P500 as they both tested their respective 50% retracement levels of the declines from their 2007 highs to the lows earlier this year. The rally since March has coincided with a decline in the US dollar of over 15% from its highs in March of...

Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD....

Yields on the US Treasury note show a major . . . bullish formation, based on technicals and fundamental drivers, suggesting 4.0% could emerge before year-end. The 10-year treasury contract is the...

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The 100-week moving averages in the S&P500 and US crude oil will act as the next resistance for risk appetite and USD-selling. ...

FX TRADERS SWIFLTLY CONCLUDE THAT NO EXIT STRATEGY IS POSSIBLE after hearing BERNANKE speak. Bernanke said that adopting a FISCAL strategy (responsibility of the US Treasury NOT the Fed) " is critically important in order to maintaining confidence in our economy and confidence in our currency". ...

Oils close above the 200-week MA of 75.70 (highest since exactly 52-weeks) is the latest major development triggering fresh USD weakness after crude oil stocks unexpectedly fell by 1 million barrels, countering expectations of a build of 2.2 million barrels. A weekly oil close above 76.2838%...

Dollar positioning is increasingly shifting towards a 2-tiered approach, with the longer term view expecting prolonged USD weakness in terms of the escalating borrowing schedule of the US Treasury and the unfolding yield differential weighing on the USD (tightening in commodity economies). But...

The US Dollar Index managed to claw back despite making a fresh 52-week low. The false-break of the September 2008 low (75.89) triggered a reversal that could possibly mark a short-term double bottom base. A sustainable rebound above the 77 handle would confirm this and refocus the 78 region,...

Medium term trends indicate the US yield curve is ready for a major break out at the expense of the USD, while LIBOR trends offer more downside room for GBP. ...

US 10 year yields continue to face resistance at 3.49-50%, with a downward bias towards 3.42%. Wednesdays FOMC decision is expected to give no new info on the Treasury purchase program, which is due to conclude in October. US stocks are stuck at -0.4%, oil may test the $69 figure while gold...

The US Dollar Index probed out of a 6-month downward sloping trendline, but failed to follow-through by rejecting at the stubborn 35-day exponential moving average. Ensuing weakness was contained, however, by corrective trendline support originating from the early August lows. Meanwhile, the...

Oil soars to $73.88, its highest since October after estimates on Eurozone PMIs beat expectations across the board. European equities manage to push higher, shrugging the 1.4% fall in Nikkei-225. Shanghai forced a 1.7% rally despite indications from Beijing about higher capital requirements for...

We're witnessing more signs of peaking appetite, this time inside the individual Forex pairs, as well as more failure in oil and Chinese stocks...

THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE FOMC statement was the assertion that it will gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The US dollar is already stabilizing from its intraday retreat after the FOMC revealed its...

PRE-BOE INFLATION REPORT & FOMC DECISION INSIGHTS. The FOMC is expected to remind markets that it has yet to complete its current asset purchase program, i.e. NO NEW batch of treasury purchases, which could be neutral-to-positive for the US dollar, and positive for the yen in the event that...

The UPCOMING 7-YR TREASURY AUCTION (due in 30 mins) faces a high bar of expectations since last months 7-yr auction drew a stronger bid-to-cover ratio of 2.82 compared to 2.26 in May. The participation from indirect bidders was also at a high 67%. Thus, todays auction needs to beat these numbers...

Aussie leads the pack for the day as the strongest performing currency, closely followed by sterling and the loonie as equities charge higher and S&P500 targets the 1,000 level. Watch the key VIX support level at 23. Market optimism is already being fuelled ahead of next Friday's payrolls,...

Another poorly subscribed US Treasury auction as the 5yr auction (CORRCT not 2 year) receives poor 36% participation from indirect bids and low 1.92 bid/cover ratio. The news are adding to stocks losses, thereby helping USD stabilize after brief pullback. JPY weakness, however, broadening, as...

The EUR/USD has probed above the recent 1.3730 -1.4170 range after breaking above trendline resistance. A weekly close above 1.4170 would be a first since September and suggests an end of rangebound trade that has persisted over the past few months. While the 50-day moving average and weekly RSI's...

The dollar's much anticipated stabilization is bound to be choppy at best...