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  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell Shuts Down Taper Talk & USD

    by Adam Button | Apr 29, 2021 13:08
    Powell Shuts Down Taper Talk & USD Chart Any illusions that the Federal Reserve would follow the Bank of Canada's....XAG, CAD and CHF are leading the gains versus USD, while XAU and JPY are the....US Q1 GDP is due up next and we got a hint on Wednesday that it will be strong...EURUSD broke above a key trendline resistance, while bond yields are....DXY traders watching the trendline support im the chart below...The Fed is sticking to its plan of lower rates for longer...The FOMC statement barely acknowledged the improved economic outlook and Powell....ldquo;It's not the time to start talking about a taper,” he said...The Fed chair also said that a transitory rise above 2% this year won&....The US dollar responded by slumping 30-50 pips across the board...The commodity currencies were particularly strong on the day and the....USD/CAD fell to a three-year low...In a bit of a warning sign, US equities finished narrowly lower on the day...Note that after 4 of the previous 8 FOMC meetings, there was a substantial risk....Looking ahead, USD/JPY may get some support from Thursday's first look....The consensus is +6...6% annualized but risks are to the upside after Wednesday's wholesale....The headline though could be overlooked if personal consumption doesn't hit....5%....Weekly initial jobless claims will also be released at the same time and could..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Timing GBP & Gold توقيت تداول الاسترليني و الذهب

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 9, 2021 15:08
    Timing GBP & Gold توقيت تداول الاسترليني و الذهب Chart Full video on calling the fractal in GBPUSD & Gold's breakout with....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed & Taper Danger الذهب و ومخاطر الفدرالي

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 25, 2021 20:16
    Fed & Taper Danger الذهب و ومخاطر الفدرالي Chart How and why gold will avoid the danger from Fed's taper even with....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Cardano & Gold Video فيديو عن كاردانو والذهب

    by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 28, 2021 14:04
    Updating gold after Powell's speech & latest on Cardano تحديث الذهب بعد..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Slumps on New Taper Message

    by Adam Button | Aug 30, 2021 14:16
    Dollar Slumps on New Taper Message Chart Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered no signal on the timing of the taper at....But it was the way Powell and other Fed speakers began to shape the taper....nbsp;Gold had its 2nd biggest weekly gain of the year and the US dollar fell....US pending home sales top the economic calendar to start a busy week...Ashraf's latest Youtube video identifies the 2 new ways the Fed is....A series of Fed speakers ahead of Powell highlighted various cases for tapering....He said that at the most-recent FOMC meeting on July 27-28 he was of the view....Since then, he noted there was a strong jobs report but also the further spread....Without expanding on the relative weight of either of those factors, he said....The message the market took from that is to keep a close eye on economic data....The US dollar slumped 40-80 pips across the board, with the heaviest losses....9% to fresh records...The market now will shift to a hyper-focus on a Nov or Dec taper (there is no....What's longer-lasting is that Powell and the FOMC are in no reason to hike...He again highlighted that inflation should be transitory, noting that....8 pp to year-over-year inflation – factors that should level off or....For the week ahead, it's a busy one leading up to non-farm payrolls but..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Weak Dollar Awaits Jobs Rescue

    by Adam Button | Sep 2, 2021 20:48
    Weak Dollar Awaits Jobs Rescue Chart DXY is posting its 5th consecutive daily decline, the longest string of losses....Thursday's release of weekly jobless showed a slight decline as expected,....ADP does have a spotty record but the soft August reading adds to the mounting....nbsp; More on the gas sector below...nbsp;The NASDAQ charts below suggest a short-term trading opportunity in....We let the charts speak for themselves...nbsp;....The ADP employment report showed the US adding just 374K jobs in August compared....That was compounded by the employment component of the ISM manufacturing....The pandemic-era history of the ADP report and the small size of....The dollar fell 30-40 pips across the board on the data in only a small....Another spot to watch is the weekly US natural gas storage report, which is....Last week's surprise miss helped to send gas prices into high gear in the US....The base case for global central banks is that the flattening of energy prices....Moreover, this is not traditionally the peak of natural gas prices for the year....So expect to hear much more about NG and LNG in the months ahead.

  • Intraday Market Thought: China Covid Outbreak, & Bitcoin Correlated Stock

    by Adam Button | Oct 25, 2021 12:51
    China Covid Outbreak, & Bitcoin Correlated Stock Chart Chinese health officials delivered some bad news on the weekend, nothing that....The market took the news in stride early, but it's worth watching if cases....On Friday, Powell reaffirmed the need to taper this year, prompting gold to lose....USD is up against most currencies as of Sunday's open, with the exception of....Minutes ago, US crude oil just hit $85 for the 1st time in 7 years, which is....nbsp; Ashraf added a stock in the chart below, with a high positive correlation....Care to guess/add it to your holdings?....As bad as supply chain bottlenecks are, they could be much worse if covid had....Or maybe it's only a matter of time because while China is making vaccine....While we're optimistic on covid receding further, the recent lockdown in....Otherwise, markets are consumed with rates and inflation talk...Powell on Friday struck a different tone in nothing the high prices will likely....He also emphasized that they need to consider a full range of plausible....While he still argued for patience, the confident 'transitory' talk from....The Fed doves are seeing the pressure on jobs and supply chains and increasingly....Interestingly though, as the dollar rallied on this and short-dated rates....Economic data will be more lively in the week ahead with the US week starting..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Chapters for BTC/ETH Video فيديو عن بتكوين وإثيريوم

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 23, 2021 23:43
    Chapters for BTC/ETH Video فيديو عن بتكوين وإثيريوم Chart Bitcoin, Ethereum & altcoins had a great two days...Here's what is needed to avoid fresh damage why I'm optimistic...Full Video.

  • Intraday Market Thought: FX Atop Stocks, Bonds & Business Surveys

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 23, 2022 17:21
    FX Atop Stocks, Bonds & Business Surveys Chart Here are charts capturing the weakness in asset portfolios, business surveys....The simultaneous decline in various Fed and non-Fed business surveys (top panel)....The latter illustrates that even bond vigilantes are growing skeptical of Fed&....nbsp; Don't be taken by the fancy charts and ask instead, “how do I....nbsp;....The uninterrupted slowdown in the Philly Fed survey, Chicago PMI, Manufacturing....The time-lag problem with this requirement is that by the time we get....nbsp;....The "market" response to the above deterioration is reflected in the....Such loss in institutional portfolios may be somewhat subsided of the high....nbsp;....Next Monday is Memorial Day Holiday in the US...But later that week will show the release of both ISM surveys and the jobs....nbsp; It is too early for such reports to reverse, or halt the inflation-....nbsp;....Yet, we must continue watching USD and bond yields...FX traders are already giving more weight to the idea of narrowing US yield....Bond bulls may be further enthused by more pullback in yields-- such as a....60% in the 10-year...Bond bears will need a proper close above 3...0% to get them confident again...No fireworks are expected as long as yields remain inside this range...FX, however, is already ahead of the curve, as we have gained from EURUSD,....nbsp; ....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Markets can no longer wait

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 24, 2017 15:36
    Markets can no longer wait Chart Much has been said and promised by president Trump and French Independent....Now it's time for details...nbsp; In the case of the US, the Fed has become not only increasingly tight-....In addition to Friday's Yellen/Fischer speeches, look out for Tuesday&....Super Trump Tuesday: Markets will shift attention to next Tuesday's Trump&....The implications for labour costs, consumer prices and the budget deficit....In the case of France (& euro), Macron has climbed in the polls to the....nbsp; France-German spreads starting to matter to the extent that they have....This has several implications: i) Forcing the ECB to carry out asymmetric....ii) As the 10-year France-Germany spread hits 5-year highs, the euro is unable....23 days after we issued our SILVER long, backed by 6 factors, we have just..
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