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Intraday Market Thought: From Draghi's ECB to Trump's GDP

by Adam Button | Jul 27, 2018 11:46
A subtle change in Draghi's messaging sent the euro lower on....The US dollar was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged,....An intriguing US Q2 GDP number is due up next (more on this below)....A new Premium trade has been issued alongside 4 technical reasons...The ECB had a chance to tweak its forward guidance in order to clear up....However later in the press conference, he said that officials were comfortable....That endorsement diminished that chance of an earlier hike an contributed to the....1622 from 1...1715...Looking ahead, Friday's first look at US Q2 GDP is especially interesting...The consensus is 4...2% but a report earlier in the week from Charlie Gasparino, who is a reliable....8%....On Thursday, Trump also said that GDP would be 'terrific'....If we ignore the President's talk, however, the final indicators were mixed...Wholesale inventories and trade balance for June were a touch soft while the....On net that roughly balances out and estimates range from 3...0%-5...0%....In terms of positioning, it's likely that some specs bought the rumor of a....Equally important is the composition of GDP...Inventory building and trade will add about 2 percentage points to GDP in this....Inventories & Soybeans....Ashraf reminds us that in order to assess the true strength of US GDP....e...how much of the GDP growth was driven by inventory surplus, which is not....For this, we must watch the "final sales" figure...Yet, even if final sales are high enough (close to GDP), traders are being....FInally, all eyes will be on the 3% barrier in US 10 year yields.
Intraday Market Thought: USD: Data vs Trade

by Adam Button | Aug 6, 2018 15:48
The US dollar continued to rally on trade tensions, shrugging somewhat....The Fed wants to see wage inflation but it wasn't as strong as hoped in....US core PCE, ISM and NFP have all disappointed but it so far appears as a....CFTC positioning data showed that the US dollar remains the heavy favorite...The GBPUSD long trade was stopped out as sterling was damaged by renewed fears....Non-farm payrolls were a shade disappointing and USD/JPY fell to 111...20 from 111...60 in the aftermath...The headline was 157K compared to 193K but an upward revision balanced out the....Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0...3% to match the consensus but the prior was revised 0...1 pp lower...The refrain that 'inflation is coming' is the 'sky is falling&....The Fed may just keep pushing it further down the road as it hikes rates, but....In other moves, Canadian trade data showed a jump in exports despite steel....The tariffs themselves hit steel exports by 37% but the overall trade balance....30...Energy was part of the story but exports may have also been accelerated on....Loonie traders get to see CAD jobs data this Friday...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +23K vs +29K prior...GBP -47K vs -47K prior...JPY -68K vs -74K prior...CHF -44K vs -46K prior...CAD -32K vs -44K prior...AUD -51K vs -45K prior....Australian dollar shorts are now at their most extreme since late 2015...We can scarcely remember a time when there was such worsening AUD enthusiasm,....A thing we talk about often is watching the places where few people are paying....The decline in the Chinese currency and the Shanghai Composite index is a good..
Intraday Market Thought: US Stocks Hit Record but Turmoil Swirls

by Adam Button | Aug 21, 2018 23:50
The S&P 500 topped the January record briefly on Tuesday but trade and....The pound was the top performer while the yen lagged...Australia is in focus later with construction work and a speech from....The Dow30 short was stopped out while the USDJPY short was closed at a gain...This week's Premium video below focuses on whether EURUSD will hit $1...12 or the road to $1...20 remains intact...Risk assets climbed early in the day on a likely delay in US auto tariffs....The market interpreted that as a sign they could be shelved altogether as the....In addition, Brexit negotiators Raab and Barnier held a joint press conference....That helped to spur GBP and EUR buying with both climbing near a full cent....Beneath the surface there are worries...The S&P 500 pared most of its gains late as did yen crosses...On China, Trump downplayed this week's lower level meetings with Beijing,....Separate WSJ and Axios reports highlighted Trump's zest for a fight....quot;He's resolved to be the guy that changes the world trading system...He's willing to take some pain to do it,” an unnamed member of....US markets have yet to reflect that possible pain while Chinese markets....US futures did slide late on some major legal drama as former Trump campaign....The double-dose of legal jeopardy raises a major risk that the President could....In the past, note that all his meltdowns have proven to be buying opportunities....That said, if he takes his wrath out on China via a trade war, that's a....Trump will be speaking at a rally in Virginia in Asia-Pacific trading...Also during that session, New Zealand reports on Q2 retail sales while....Both a likely to be market movers and so is a speech from Debelle at 0310 GMT.
Intraday Market Thought: CAD & DAX: Worse of FX & Indices

by Adam Button | Sep 4, 2018 16:16
As the last of summer Bank holidays is behind us, market liquidity attempts to....On Monday, renewed worries about NAFTA and Brexit weighed on markets and the....The US ISM manufacturing index powered to a broad-based 14-year high,....nbsp; The DAX short in the Premium Insights hit its final target at 12260....Will discuss in this evening's video whether more declines are in store or....The ebb and flow of markets at the moment is largely driven by politics...Friday was a fake deadline to compete a NAFTA agreement...After negotiators reached a deadlock, the necessary Congressional notice was....That was followed by a series of anti-Canada tweets from Trump on the weekend....USD/CAD climbed Friday and on Monday, which was a holiday in Canada and the US...On Tuesday, the pair hit 1...3208, matching the July 20 high...Cable, meanwhile, is increasingly at the mercy of comments from Barnier, Raab or....Last week, Barnier's comment about a special deal for Britain sent cable to....The other spot to watch is China...Thursday is the deadline for comments on Trump's proposal to place tariffs....A report last week said he intends to announce action immediately after the....The market has shrugged its shoulders at the threats so far but it's....Aussie briefly recovered on a brighter than expected outlook from the RBA....Westpac announced higher mortgage rates last week and that sent AUD reeling....Recent news coverage is also littered with worries about interest-only loans....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -7K vs -5K prior...GBP -77K vs -72K prior...JPY -46K vs -47K prior...CHF -45K vs -47K prior...CAD -25K vs -27K prior...AUD -45K vs -50K prior...NZD -24K vs -25K..
Intraday Market Thought: Growth Trumps Trade

by Adam Button | Sep 19, 2018 14:57
The market's reaction to US tariffs and China's retaliation on Tuesday....The Australian dollar was (and remains today) the top performer while JPY and....The market reaction is a combination of eleveated traders' expectations....The macro data of the day is the upside surprise in UK inflation, particularly....1%....Global equity markets are again rallying in concert...A positive reaction to tariffs and a trade war between the two largest....We often talk about news being the best measure of a market and if markets can&....The nature of all news is that it's worrisome...If you own a stock, a bond or a currency you have to be on guard against the....What we don't talk about enough is that things are getting better...Even recent comments from ECB and BOE were upbeat despite looming problems to....The yield curve is worrisome but it hasn't inverted yet and even if it does,....nbsp; Economic data in most of the world is solid with FX traders focusing on....This may be another explanation to the USD's retreat...Another sign is the relentless march of money into new ideas...Last year it was cryptocurrencies and at the moment it's marijuana stocks...The animal spirits are alive and it will eventually end in pain but in the words....rdquo;..
Intraday Market Thought: Gold Extends, Brexit Talks Hit Snag

by Adam Button | Oct 15, 2018 13:06
While the focus is on the broad USD weakness, we shed light on GBP weakness....Sterling is broadly weaker...Reports that Saudi Arabia started an internal probe into Khashoggi....US retail sales are due next...Gold hit 1233 and tests the 100-DMA against USD, EUR, JPY and CHF...New charts & reasons were added to the Premium index and metals trades...Hopes were high for a deal on the key Brexit issues on the weekend with an....Raab took a last-second flight to Brussels Sunday to try to break the....Perhaps cable close at the daily lows on Friday was a sign of things to come...It fell as low as 1...3083 from 1...3150 at Friday's close...The drop left a 50 pip gap on the chart...EURGBP recovers off the 100-DMA...No new talks are scheduled but that could change quickly...As we saw in NAFTA and in years of EU crisis negotiations, 'deadlines'....Other weekend news included a drop by as much as 7% in Saudi Arabia's market....In turn, Saudi Arabia threatened a response with the local press hinting at....Crude was up more than 1% in early trade...Focus turns today's US September retail sales at 1230 GMT...The consensus is for a 0...4% in the control group, following a disappointing 0...1% rise in the August data...A strong reading could shore up sentiment in markets if it's a....However a weak reading could be interpreted as a sign that higher....Towards the end of the US session we may also get the semi-annual FX report from....The last time Beijing was designated as such was in 1994...nbsp; There is no scheduled day for the release but a Politico report says it&....Early leaks suggest it will maintain the status quo but any escalation in the..
Intraday Market Thought: Lessons as the Flash Crash Fades

by Adam Button | Jan 8, 2019 14:42
Last week's flash crash in currencies and subsequent recovery....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the yen lagged on Monday...Today, the US dollar is mostly bid in a day light on data...This morning's release of the US trade balance report has been delayed....The Dow30 long entered late last week is 650 points in the green and remains in....More to Come....We fear that flash crashes like the one triggered by yen crosses last week will....But what are the lessons? In the the sterling crash of October 2016, the....It came after many days of heavy selling and, importantly, the decline continued....Aussie Reversal....Last week's episode bears some similarities...AUD/JPY, for instance, had been sold for many days and all they crosses were at....Yet this time the selling hasn't onlly stopped, but the price has....AUD/JPY has nearly completely retraced the losses and other pairs have also....The yen crosses could easily track back lower but anyone who sold the drop is....So what's the lesson? The main one should be the conditions before the....Another is be extra vigilant in the quiet trading zone after the US close....As for the direction after a crash, as long as fundamentals are behind the move,....In the GBP edition, nothing was changing and Brexit continue to loom...There was no scope for good news...Therefore, beware as we approach next week's Brexit vote in Parliament...In this edition, the reversal was helped by coordinated action from the Fed,....Such are crucial reasons for the rebound...That said, negative developments could unwind the positivity quickly...Looking ahead, the November US trader balance report is delayed because of the....The report would have been particularly valuable given the ongoing US-China....We may be able to glean a sense of the US trade balance from data from partners,..
Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Extension, more Drama Follows

by Adam Button | Mar 14, 2019 22:20
Britain's Parliament authorized Theresa May to ask for an extension of....The Swiss franc was the top performer but the pound is recovering in thin pre-....Friday's trade will wrap up with an important look at US industrial....GBP Premium trade remains well in the green with 3 other trades...فيديو المشتركين - ألإدارة بين الإسترليني و المؤشرين...Theresa May won a pair of important votes on Thursday including a narrow 314-....The pound lost most of its gains after the vote to authorize an Article 50....The reason is that there are rumblings the EU could grandstand before pushing....It would require the approval of all 27 EU members and – as we warned....Accept or Wait One Year....And so as Theresa May's deal heads for a 3rd vote next week, the inevitable....That also means the UK pariticipates in this year's European Elections...At the same time, there are signs that May has a plan to get her deal approved...Negotiations are underway with the DUP to support the Irish border backstop and....The combination of the ERG and DUP could swing as many as 60 of the 75 votes....If May can get that close she could lean on Labour members or soft Brexit....It may take two votes rather than one but it's possible and it would be a....We will continue to watch for signs in the day ahead and through the weekend....4% from -0...6%..
Intraday Market Thought: Trump Tweets Hold Intermarket Levels

by Adam Button | May 14, 2019 12:38
Pres Trump has just tweeted moments ago "when the time is right we will....Markets up off their lows, with SPY futures +16, DOW futures +127 pts and....66...UK employment rate fell to 3...8% from 3...9%, earnings growth (pay) dropped to 3...2% y/y from 3...5%....German ZEW business sentiment was mixed...A new index trade has been issued with 4 supporting charts for Premium....The full details are covered in the Premium video below...Every negotiation involves some element of bluff...There's always the risk the other party will walk away from the table and....In a political deal, the domestic side is always another voice in discussions....What's clear is that a US-China deal is in the best interest of both....Although mutual benefit was almost always the case in the past, history is....So here we are with the US scheduled to hit China with harsher tariffs and....China has announced retaliation and no talks are scheduled on either side...The market wasted no time in reacting to the 2...4% fall in the S&P500, more than doubling the cumulative loss over the....The Shanghai Composite is down 11...5% in less than two weeks...It could all change in an instant...The sides aren't terribly far apart...That makes trading in this environment deeply risky...If nothing changes, the latest trends will continue but the further markets....Three Realities....Three facts that are troubling in the short term: i) Despite Trump's....Mnuchin said a meeting is likely but there's not a timetable yet...ii) Trump stating he will meet Xi at the G20 is positive but the summit isn'....Trade will continue to dominate markets this week but economic data is worth....We continue to watch 11820 on the DAX, 25380/400 on the DOW30, but the more..
Intraday Market Thought: Risk Can't Stay on, Bass Gives up

by Adam Button | May 15, 2019 13:09
Risk trades pare yesterday's gains, which were caused by Trump downplaying....But follow-up is lacking as markets return to macro factors...nbsp; The yen and franc are the only gainers vs USD since the start of the....US retail sales (exp 0...2%) and Canada CPI (exp 2...0%) due at 13:30 London and US industrial production (exp unchanged)....More on what Kyle Bass did below...تعمق في الصفقات (فيديو المشتركين)....Trump's attempt at defusing tensions helped global equities rallya across....rdquo; A spokesman for the US Treasury Secretary also said he would head to....The commentary lifted USD/JPY by 30 pips and led to a 22 point rebound in the S&....But USDJPY is back down to 109...20s on decline in risk appetite...Beneath the surface the market is concerned about increasingly hawkish and....That could be a sign of the government preparing the domestic audience for a....The talk from Mnuchin is also double-edged because it appears he may not....Kyle Bass Throws Towel....One of the most notable stories of the week is of renowned hedge fund China....The bet, started in July 2015 gave luster to Bass' star as it occured....In March of this year, Bass posited China would eventually erode its $3...0 trillion in FX reserves in trying to shore up the yuan...Another well known hedge fund China bear is Mark Hart, who abandoned his his 8-....The day ahead will be an opportunity to refocus on the US economy and the....April retail sales are expected to rise 0...2%, or 0...7% excluding autos...Watch the control group closely; it's forecast to rise 0...3%....A strong reading may strengthen Trump's belief that tariffs are working.