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Results: 891 to 900 of 1,000
Results: 891 to 900 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Testing Support on Trade War Fire, BoC Next
by Adam Button | May 29, 2019 14:12
China has entered into a war of words that makes a quick resolution to the....This includes a report that Beijing may restrict the exports of its rare earths....more on this below)....The Bank of Canada decision is up next...The short DOW30 Premium trade hit its final 25150 target, realizing 470 pts of....A new trade was issued at the start of the London session and is already 60 pts....A report in the South China Morning Post emphasized that the US side “kept....We have no idea if that's true or if the leaked US version is true...What's important here is that China has entered into the war of words and....Before this, China had kept a lid on leaks and the domestic press...This aim of this move is at least party to harden domestic opposition to the US....Rare Eaths Threat....Although China has retaliated with tariffs on $60bn of its imports from the....This would be a serious blow to the US, which relies on China for about 80% of....China makes up more than 2/3 of the world's rare earths production...Rare earths is crucial in making smatphones and laptops faster and....US equity markets started the day in a positive mood after the long weekend but....Yields fell 4-5 bps across the curve and the 10-year is now just above the lower....22%....The further inversion of the yield curve is a bright-red flag...Keep an eye on 2777, which is the 200-DMA of S&P500....Looking ahead, central bankers have to navigate these challenges...The BOC is up next and will undoubtedly hold rates, despite months of very....Expect Poloz to hike growth forecasts but continue to insist on patience to do..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold Breaks 1350, Retail Sales Next
by Adam Button | Jun 14, 2019 12:03Gold hits 14-month highs with yen on top after weak Chinese industrial output....The first vote of Conservatives MPs revealed that Boris Johnson will at....Friday's upcoming US retail sales report has the potential to be a major....Below is the Premium susbcribers' video focusing on gold and indices, with....Johnson received the support of 114 of the 314 Conservative MPs in the first....Baring some kind of scandal that leads to MPs switching their vote, the worst....At that point, broader party leadership will have the opportunity to vote for....The real race over the next two weeks will be who he faces off against...Several names will fall off the ballot and a second vote will take place on....Remainer Matt Hancock dropped out earlier this morning, leaving remainers....More on this from Ashraf here...Coming second to Johnson was Jeremy Hunt, who had the support of 43 MPs,....The results left a minimal impact on the FX market even though the betting odds....That's a reflection of key divisions that persist in the party...Theresa May voted for Hunt along with influential ministers Liam Fox and Amber....As we near today's US data, bond markets are firmly pricing 2 Fed rate....This could change in the event of surprises in the May US retail sales....The April report was weak with the control group flat compared to a 0...3% rise expected but March numbers previously were strong...The Fed has remained upbeat on consumers but this will be another test...The consensus for the headline retail sales is +0...6% but the spot to watch is the control group, which is forecast to rise 0...4%....A miss would weigh on USD and harden expectations for a rate-cutting signal.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Gold at 5 yr High on Powell's 1st Dovish Turn, BoE Next
by Adam Button | Jun 20, 2019 11:45
The Fed finally lived up to the market's dovish expectations as Powell made....It was the first aggresively dovish turn and the first dovish dissent in the era....Gold broke above 1350 to hit a 5-year high of 1394 and silver broke 15...00 to reach 15...40...The pound was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The BoE decision is up next...The Premium Insights gold long reached its final target of 1380 (from 1280....Each of the 3 other existing USD Premium trades are at least 100 pips in the....Below is the latest FOMC statement with a strikethrough comparison with the....The market went from 'fairly certain' of a rate cut in July to '....The dots now show nearly half of the Fed anticipating two cuts this year...Powell pinned the shifts in language on rising uncertainty from trade and global....The market reacted by fully pricing in a July cut with a small chance of a 50....A second cut in September is 86% priced into the Fed funds futures market as....It was a historic Fed outcome as not only it signalled the first clear dovish....nbsp;....The bond market was surprised by the outright turn and 2-year yields fell 13....73%....Ten-year yields were down 3 basis points in a slight signal that the Fed is....Given the falls in yields, the dollar decline was initially muted with roughly....The modest decline at the start reflected the continuing larger role of....It also reflects the Fed's assessment that global factors are the....Cable has engineered a solid turnaround after finding support at 1...2500 on Tuesday to reach 1...2720...Rory Stewart was eliminated from the Conservative leadership race and now it&....That man will be decide in the final two votes of MPs on Thursday...All the remaining candidates are polling behind Johnson within the party and....Any signs of a united front from Conservatives will give them a better....If Hunt, Gove or Javid chooses to fight, it will signal more gridlock on the....As we move to the BoE decision next, governor Carney may choose to dial back....If he decided to stick with a positive tone, the rally in GBP will continue...The Premium Insights remain long GBPUSD from 1.....
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Intraday Market Thought: Lowe Asks the Question
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2019 12:25
RBA Governor Lowe touched a delicate subject that his counterparts may also....The German June IFO survey beat expectations for the current assessment....We expect a period of a relative lull in the markets ahead of Trump/Xi meeting....GBP pushes above 1...2740 as Jeremy Hunt and Boris Johnson battle it out for the PM race...More below...nbsp; The Premium long in XRP Ripple at 0...33 entry hit the final target of 0...49...The long EURUSD Premium long at 1...1230 is a few pips away from its final 1...1400 target for 170-pip gain...Below are the chart breakouts for EURUSD and XAUUSD net longs among speculative....In a panel discussion on Monday, RBA Governor Lowe mused that it's....Domestically he also cast questions, saying the exchange rate effect of....That gave the Australian dollar a boost to start the week...We ended the week with US equity markets near an all-time record and economic....The Fed is undoubtedly committed to at least one rate cut, but if US-China....That could be the signal from bonds late in the week as long-end yield crept....At the same time, proxies for global easy money like gold and bitcoin....Here is a useful Bitcoin factoid from Ashraf....With regards to the latest in the race for Conservative Party leader and PM,....nbsp; Reports of domestic violence related to Boris Johnson may have....More on this from Ashraf.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Powell's Testimony
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 10, 2019 13:02
Thin summer trading volumes will sustain a brief jolt as Fed Chair Powell....e...8:30 Eastern/13:30 London) and tomorrow...The testimony and ensuing Q&A will shed further light on the probability of....It may be too soon for Powell to hint at the magnitude of the rate cut for Jul....FX traders bear in mind the following: Powell has already stated the economic....e...not limited to the trade war...USD bulls argue that any rate cut would only be a one-time adjustment instead of....USD bulls will also state that the magnitude of the rate cut does not....USD bears could point to the fact that the Fed has never conducted a policy....Additionally, limited or no Fed easing will exacerbate the disinflationary....Powell can't afford to get his price stability objective off the markt...And don't forget the export-reliant sector of US companies desparate for....nbsp;....Regardless of Powell's message, it will be unlikely for him to be so....While trading opportunities should return, no trend-breaking moves are....nbsp;....As important as the speech will be, do not disregard the Q&A with....For the tradable implications of my extensive analysis, tune in to the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Shale & Powell Resistance Eyed
by Adam Button | Jul 16, 2019 12:40
USD is up across the board, while GBP is at new 2019 lows on fears of no-deal....An important US data report is due shortly, followed by several Fed....Will Powell's speech present new resistance to the US dollar as it did....nbsp; CFTC data showed an increasingly crowded GBP trade...Two new Premium trades are set to be issued this week...WTI crude rose to the highest since late-May last week as it climbed above $60...There was some concern heading into the weekend with Hurricane Barry threatening....It ultimately made landfall as a Category 1 stor and underperformed most....The start of hurricane season is a fresh reminder that old rules for US crude....A decade ago, the US imported roughly 5 million barrels per day of crude via the....But due to the shale revolution, Gulf net exports are now roughly zero...That could leave gluts points and drive down prices, especially if refineries....At the same time, there will still be offshore production shutdowns so global....Retail Sales, Powell et al....Looking ahead, Tuesday's release of US June retail sales (control group) is....3% rise from a downward revised 0...4%....Fed Vice chair Bowman speaks 15 mins before retail sales, followed by Fed....Chicago Fed's Evans will speak 2...5 hr later...nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -36K vs -31K prior...GBP -73K vs -64K prior...JPY -4K vs -1K prior...CHF -10K vs -11K prior...CAD +9K vs +6K prior...AUD -54K vs -58K prior...NZD -22K vs -24K prior....The general theme over the past few weeks is US dollar longs headed to the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Deal Mirage, Earnings Unease & G7 Chatter
by Adam Button | Jul 18, 2019 10:24
A fresh report on Wednesday saying the US-China have failed to make any....Moreover, there is a growing sense that the conditions aren't right for a....GBP is the strongest currency on a combination of stronger than expected UK....See the notes on Alcoa, CSX and Netflix below...Euro lost ground on a report stating that the ECB may revamp its approach to....Both of this week's newly added Premium trades are in the green...There are currently 6 trades open...The Premium Video titled "The Short Backed by All 3 Metrics" is out...A WSJ report said US-China talks are hung-up on executing the US pledge to....Once that's sorted out, China has pledged to buy US agricultural goods...The problem is the White House is struggling to decide what to allow the....The inability to make any concrete progress after several indications of an....Equity markets stumbled Tuesday after initial comments from Trump expressing....The economic backdrop also makes it tough to envision a deal...The US reopened talks in December after a 20% drop in stock markets; now they&....There are also signs that China's economy is surviving a pivot towards....G7 FX Chatter....Here is a tweet from Ashraf on the G7 meeting in Paris:....In other economic news, the Fed's Beige Book underscored a solid US....Commentary highlighted unease about trade but a 'generally positive'....Earnings continue to paint a slightly different picture...Railway operator CSX warned of softening demand Tuesday and aluminum giant Alcoa....Netflix tumbled 13% on news that it lost 130K US clients.
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Intraday Market Thought: From Shy BoJ to Actionable Fed
by Adam Button | Jul 30, 2019 23:16The yen edged higher on Tuesday after Kuroda refrained from taking any firm....JPY was the top performer on Tuesday while the pound lagged again...The FOMC decision is the big event on Wednesday, but Canadian GDP and US ADP....Trade positioning ahead of the Fed decision is covered in the video for....The BOJ didn't alter its guidance about keep easy policy at least through spring....Kuroda also avoided any strong hints at action...Instead he emphasized a shift in communication to say the bank now....It's a minor change and especially insignificant compared to the big turns....It led to a modest dip in USD/JPY but was largely ignored as the market dials....Ashraf expects a retest of 108...90s before a gradual drop towards 107...80s...The bigger move was once again in the pound as it hit a new two-year low in....2150...Meetings between Ireland and the UK solved nothing with Johnson insisting....Another trend was the divergence in AUD/CAD as oil prices and the proximity to....In contrast, the Australian dollar fell for the eighth consecutive day and is....6832 – a level that's doubly important because it was also the 2016....The FOMC decision follows next, setting the tone for the remainder of the week,....The Fed recieved further indications that the economy is solid as consumer....7 compared to 125...0...That's the third-best reading this century...The PCE report was largely in line with expectations but inflation was a touch....There are some risks before the FOMC with the ADP report expected to show....Canada's May GDP is also on the agenda with a 0...1% rise expected. -
Intraday Market Thought: The Week that was & Dashboard
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2019 18:51What started as a week of gloom and doom in the markets, ended with a positive....This was supposed to be a quiet week, when central bankers are on holiday and....But from the way the last exchanges occured, the US-China trade war is far....China is growing more vocal and its tack is changing as Ashraf pointed out here...nbsp; More on this from is time last week, Ashraf issued a Premium short in....The trade was closed with a 700-pt gain...No longs will be issued today despite the index being up 300 pts...There are two existing trades for now...We'll return next week with the FOMC minutes of the last meeting and the Fed&....Meanwhile, GBP is the strongest currency of the day and the week, in a week that....More on the market dahsboard below...Reconciling Positive Retail Data w/ Market Turmoil....The data highlight of the week was the 1...0% rise in US retail sales (control group) compared to +0...4% expected...That makes the first seven months of 2019 the strongest seven-month period....The strength in retail was underscored by by quarterly results and commentary....That data is in wild contrast to financial market moves this month...Treasury yields fell to fresh lows with 10-year notes breaking 1...50% and 30-year bonds falling below 2%....Both have fallen 50 basis points since the start of the month – a sign of....How do we reconcile robust consumer data with violent market moves? For one, the....This is especially the case for a late-cycle economy, when slowdown in....Said differently, "labour markets are always the last to know"....It's also looking abroad to the eurozone, which is increasingly....On Thursday, the ECB's Rehn told the WSJ that at this point the central bank....The market is now pricing a better-than-even chance of a 20 bps cut (rather than....Market Dashboard....Here are some notable market notes sent to me by Ashraf...Despite today's gains:....US indices posted the 3rd straight weekly decline, the longest since May...US 10 year yield fell 11% on the week, the biggest decline since summer 2012...VIX remains well over its 200-DMA of 17...00 and all 3 meain weekly MAs...GBPUSD has its strongest week in 7 weeks. -
Intraday Market Thought: China RRR Cut Sustain Rallies, NFP & Powell Next
by Adam Button | Sep 6, 2019 12:44Risk-on sentiment continues to triumph, lifting stocks and bond yields, while....Today's announcement from China cutting banks reserve requirement ratio....There are three Premium trades currently in progress...فيديو للمشتركين) مرجعية ٢٠٠٧، ٢٠١١، ٢٠١٥ و ٢٠١٩...The People's Bank of China announced today it would cut the reserve....The magnitude of the rate cut was larger than most analysts had expected ....The S&P 500 broke out of its box to the best levels in a month at 2985....A few things stood out from this rally...One was that Treasury yields climbed alongside stocks...Many times last month it was stocks moving higher alone...Cyclical stocks are also accelerating their gains, even European automakers-....Yen crosses made similar breaks with AUD/JPY and USD/JPY both rising to a one-....Commodity markets reversed recent moves as gold sank more than $30 to $1518 and....On the fundamental side there were some notable differences as well...A Chinese MOFCOM spokesman highlighted that both sides would strive for....State mouthpiece Hu Xijin also noted a higher possibility of a breakthough...The lengthy timeline is also a notable development...I leaves a catalyst for bulls in place but also gives central banks a reason to....In terms of economic data, the US showed some improvement as ADP employment rose....4 compared to 54...0 consensus...Fundamentals will remain in focus on Friday with US and Canadian jobs reports....Non-farm payrolls are forecast at +160K...Note however that the report has missed the consensus 77% of the time in....While APD was strong, the employment component of the ISM services survey was....Powell's speech is at 12:30 Eastern, 17:30 London.
