Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 2338
Forum Topic:
USD
Discuss USD
china may take some action, but they also said by allowing chinese people invest in foreign country to avoid bubbles (20/09), and still have more room for inflation (17/09).
well what else could FED have stated?
It is not prepared to take action?
I think we'll see some big surprises this week especially with EUR it is way overvalued
http://youtu.be/QQKFf_uRavs
Ashraf
My outlook is for no change in policy or stance; but what will that do to the dollar?
if this is the case i think USD could bounce four few days against EURO which could reach 1.2800 dispite today irish auction, because usd fell last week on more QE speculation. (short term outlook)
After that I think that big players will drill FEd for more QE next month, and we ll see USD decline gradually. (long term outlook)
China/Africa/America latina (winners) Vs USA/Europe (losers)
http://www.michelcollon.info/Ocean-Indien-ici-se-joue-la-grande.html
Its time to put our money in south
Ashraf
i feel a huge push higher for the dollar if no QE
However PIMCO does not expect FED to mention QE tomorrow.
This could become trader's paradise. Some commodity gurus have already recommended to short evry industry metal also gold silver, and crude .
Whle USd will rally CAD may plunge not clear about JPY but possibly rally, too.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/forex-blogs/1157/
Ashraf
As a mathematician I would almost automatically understand "backtesting" that any method of determinating next prices must also determinate previous prices . I don't think any technical analyst has ever checked his respective method in such a manner.
Of course the cited theorem is just trivial and it is also trivial that topological entropy must be zero for predictability.
It is only natural traders aren't that much interested in determination of prices of the past
but if they were to test their analysis methods with such a backtest , well , they might find coin flipping more reliable. Thus it is appreciated when Ashraf reminds of fundamentals.