Archived IMT (2008.10.21)

My negative bias GBPUSD remains intact especially as the focus turns to the deteriorating fundamentals of the UK. October CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends fell to a 5-year low at -39 from prior -26, while the Business Optimism index plunged to a 28-year low of -60 from -40. Such conditions pave the way for a 50-bp rate cut by the BoE next month. UK September retail sales and Q3 GDP on Wednesday and Thursday will provide further direction to GBP. Interim support stands at $1.6920, followed by $1.6880. Intensification of equity market selling makes $1.6730 possible as early as this week.