Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.03.05)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 5, 2010 3:06

NFP DOLLAR BIPOLARITY? With forecasts for Fridays US jobs report ranging from -150K to -40K and unemp. rate expected +0.1% to 9.8% + the price effect of the previous revisions, the multitude of factors weighing on the report will undoubtedly cause wild swings in the 30-60 mins after the release. USD will likely rally on NFP bipolarity i.e. with the overall report either very disappointing (big NFP decline + big rise in unemp rate OR big NFP increase and unemp rate decrease). Weve already seen the June 2009 jobs report (released in Jul) when a rare consistency in the jobs report (declining NFP losses and falling unemp rate) caused a $USDX rally along side a short-lived rally in stocks. A more recent & memorable case was the Nov jobs report (released in December 4th) which showed the smallest NFP decline in over 2 years. A strong report would spike up fed funds futures and make USDJPY among the biggest winners of the day. All $USDX pairs would rally with the opposite case being for JPY. A gloomy report would help USDX to the extent of a sell-off in equities, as it stands, THE AUDUSD DEJA VU ALERT IS STILL ON and EURUSD RESISTANCE still holds as in here


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