Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.03.11)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 11, 2010 23:11

USDCAD testing the Oct 2009 lows of 1.0220 as CAD soars against all major currencies, with the exception of AUD and JPY. Multi-decade highs in CAD vs. NOK and GBP. Tomorrows CAN Feb jobs report expected at 15K from 43K and the unemployment rate seen at 8.2% from 8.3%. Winter Olympics-related hiring may have helped in propping the Jan figures and could well again do so in Feb. In the event that the PBOC does raise interest rates (I see a 70% chance of a hike in the lending and deposit rates), risk appetite could be dealt a blow and USDCAD may be propped. PBOC decisions have usually been announced around 10:00-10:30 GMT. The combination of a PBOC hike and a disappointing CAN jobs report could fuel USDCAD to as high as 1.0370 and 1.0440. Another upside jobs surprise and no China hike risk driving USDCAD down to 1.0180. Once again the Dow and S&P500 unable to close at their 2010 highs, but NASDAQ faces no difficulties in breaking to new post-correction high at 2367. 35 hours remaining to my 1-day COURSE IN LONDON


Latest IMTs