Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.09.23)

by Ashraf Laidi
Sep 23, 2010 11:46

GBP RALLIES across the board, but is barely up above the USD. Disappointing flash PMI figures from the Eurozone and Germany have dragged down EUR, including EURGBP, which indirectly lifted GBP against all currencies. Europe and US equity futures are down across the board -0.6%-0.8%. Weaker than expected Irish Q2 GDP -1.8% y/y vs. exp -0.4% is also weighing on the euro, which means that any worsening in risk appetitesuch as a rebound in US weekly jobless claims and disappointing US existing home sales, could call up EURUSD down to $1.3260. LEARN FROM THE PAST and realize that all pullbacks in EURUSD over the past 6 weeks have not broken below any key support levels. +800 pips rebound from 10 Sep lows does require a pullback. A break below $1.3270, seen supported at $1.3225, which is the previous 200-day MA and trendline extending from Sep 10 lows. Any deterioration in risk appetite is likely to deepen losses in NZD following disappointing GDP figures. NZDJPY breaks below 61.77 trendline support, eyeing 60.90.


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