Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2010.11.15)

by Ashraf Laidi
Nov 15, 2010 14:21

US Oct retail sales may have soared past expectations, rising 1.2%--the highest increase in 7 months, but the unexpected slide in the New York Feds Nov manufacturing index to -11.1 from +15.7 (vs expectations of a 13.10 reading) and the disappointingly low +0.2% in sales excluding autos/gasoline/building materials from +0.4% served to scale down gains in stocks, bond yields and the US dollar. Recent USD gains have partly resulted from Irelands sovereign woes, but mainly due to rising US yields following the unexpectedly strong October jobs report. $1.37 EURUSD retains the level to watch as far as daily closing values before considering the $1.35 figure55-week MA. Yen weakness broadening across FX as global yields extend recovery on robust US data and Chinese inflation. Fears of further Chinese tightening are hampering the risk trade, along side commodities. As US 10-year yields hit a 3-month high of 2.9%, breaking above their 55 and 100-day MAs, the next level in focus becomes 3.2%--the 200-week MA. Such outlook would have positive implications for USDJPY reaching a preliminary target of 86.


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