Intraday Market Thoughts

EFSF Outlined, Onto Ezone Flash CPI

by Kyle Morrison
Nov 30, 2011 9:16

EFSF leverage framework outlined, German unemployment falls by more than expected, UK Gfk consumer confidence slides again. Expecting Eurozone flash Nov CPI. More downgrades overnight as S&P downgrades US banks, US ADP expected as well as Canada Q3 GDP.

Eurogroup ministers unveiled their plan for leveraging the EFSF without much detail with respect to how much it would be leveraged and on the extent of IMF involvement would have in respect of the part of the CIF tranche. Both Rehn and Junckers were deliberately evasive on that point. Estimates of the total leverage range from between 250bn and 600bn, as EU ministers start the second day of their meeting.Up to now, the EFSF shall insure 20-30% of sovereign bonds and will be able to leverage resources up to EUR 250bn, starting early 2012.

German November unemployment falls by 20k vs exp -8k, unemployment rate at 6.9% vs exp 7.0%), Italy October unemployment rose to 8.5% from 8.3%.

UK November Gfk consumer confidence came in at -31 from -32. Yesterdays Autumn Statement made pretty grim reading and Fitch certainly thought so warning on the sustainability of the UK outlook given the current growth dynamics.

Due at 10 GMT, Eurozone Nov flash CPI expected to remain at 3.0%. A lower than exp figure would escalate expectations for more ECB easing and potentially unsterlilised purchases.

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Sentiment could well suffer a setback today after S&P downgraded a number of major US banks, including Citigroup, BOA and Goldman long term credit ratings, on concerns about exposure to European debt.

This afternoon we the precursor to the latest US payrolls report with November ADP numbers while soon after we have Canadian Q3 GDP numbers.

 
 

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