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Posts by "asad"
793
Posts by Anonymous "asad":
EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
ماذا تفعل خلال 5 ثواني
ماذا تفعل خلال 5 ثواني؟؟ في خمسة ثواني بعد قرار الفدرالي اعطينا التفسير و تنبأنا بالحركة و بإمكانكم استماع
الرسالة في قناتي على تلغرام
I'd been absent from the Forum from the past three weeks...and now caught up by reading the previous posts!
Hindsight is a great thing...but can also often make you smile. About oil...well, you wrote on 25/9 that you expect oil to fall to 63 (I agree - still agree!), someone else wrote he expects it around 40 by year end...and yet another wrote 37. It seems pretty funny...even bizarre!
Ashraf, what does your common sense (let's leave analyses aside for a bit) suggest is happening? I'd like to listen to that side of the story. You know WELL that this should NOT be happening, right? Why, then?
Personally, and again...I believe that the fair price of oil is NO B****Y WAY above 65...even 62! And we all are here to witness that the markets will come down w/ a bang!
Spec, you saw them reverse the Sep trend - now enjoy the Oct reversal! They're showing you 10,000 Dow. After that? :)
Asad
Thanks for your reception! :)
Gunjack...I wrote that I have been RELIGIOUSLY following the markets. I do NOT know WHO or WHAt is driving the market forward.
Pipster...ask yourself this question - what is driving the oil forward (demand or JUST weakness in $). If your answer if the first, you're right! Next, is there any demand? No.
Today is Friday (fact! *heheh*). Seems like a classic traders' close. If it's not profit taking at weekend, the it's a NEAR high close. Why? Monday morning...they'll take it around 72.80/85 & then drop it from there to $70. Watch VERY carefully - they SHOULD be doing this!
Ashraf, WHY should oil break 73 & head towards 75? Has Israel planned an offensive against Iran? Is there a massive leak at Cushings? Or has BP decided to sell candies instead?
I may be the laughing stock of the Forum for (still!) consistently believing that the fair price of oil is b/w 60 & 65...but at least I believe I'm right!
IF ever the Regulators had to intervene...it is NOW! Dow 10000 - JOKE! Oil 75 - JOKE! Gold 1100 - JOKE! N.Gas 5 - JOKE!
Asad
I was on vacations (apologies for running away w/o any warning...or Ashraf's approval *smiles*).
The markets have been followed religiously...and i'll be coming up w/ my (faulty) analyses in the coming days.
See you soon... ;)
Asad
Aiful, Japan's second-largest lender fails to reschedule debt payment - shares not trades as sell>buy!
Lloyd's not able to fulfill the FSA funding requirement
With the weekend, these just may be enough to encourage a major sell-off? I believe that the market is at such a level where just a splinter of bad news can start a chain reaction!
Nikkei -92, Dow -44, FTSE -29, oil broke below 72 and gold down to 1010.
Don't worry...fundamentals WILL and DO prevail. If anything, one fundamental ALWAYS holds true: What goes up MUST comes down... ;)
Banning him from the Forum would solve the problem.
I meant, 'Banning Qin from the Forum would NOT solve the problem'
Let's not be THAT harsh on Qin. Having MANY Chinese friends, I can tell you (no offense Qin) that they are at a deficit to translate their REAL ideas into English...and hence end up speaking what we may perceive as ignorant or offensive.
I have carefully studied Qin's comments...and quite often, his thoughts on Ashraf and fellow members are NOT as harsh as his words may show!
But Qin, this...
"I assume that if CMC is trading on his comments, CMC may have some trouble in their balance sheet now......"
...was EXTREMELY audicious of you!! This REALLY is the last straw. I mean, for Heaven's sake...Ashraf is a guy who is CONSISTENTLY ranked the world's no. 1 forex analysts. Me, you, Tom, Dick & Harry (& Sue, Siss & Sally - for sexists) COULD be wrong, but surely not CNBC, Bloomberg etc. I mean, WHAT?
Banning him from the Forum would solve the problem. Hey, we have to care about fellow forums as well. :p It'll be like dunping toxic assets into other balance sheets. heheheh
Qin, we all make mistakes. Spec, Gunjack, FX, Said, me - we all are wrong. But does NAYONE of us shouts (like you) that 'you are worng...you are wrong...you are wrong!' or 'you lead people to loss'. No. Why? Mutual respect.
You've got the signa. If I were you...I'd make a sincere apology (even if only, and deservedly, to Ashraf) or just respectfully leave the Forum (and let people remember me ONLY for my forecasts). But me...well, I'd still have you around...because even if you're expensive at times...you add quality to the forum!
I have as much knowledge of forex as you have of oil. Anything beyond specialism is Ashraf Laidi! But seriously, the day I delve into forex...trust me...I'll trade it AS good or bad as I trade oil. But I take it step by step.
Having said this, I'm not a complete nutter! I know my economics well...and can determine WHAT and WHEN of a given currency, even if generally.
At least I don't say that oil has a 50-50 chance ( just like you put e/thing at a common sensical 50% probability). When I say, I firmly and absolutely say it - 100%. And if I fail, I COMPLETELY own up to it - 100%!
Thanks v/ much for your insight and concern. I do understand the negative correlation b/e USD and oil...and trade accordingly (& not just make it a matter of ego to STAY short when it should be long). But I really have my hand on the oil's pulse. Literally, I was short when it was to come down...and long when it was to go up. :) In fact, just before the inventory figs came...I was long...and eventually closed the position at 72.30. Pretty profitable! :)
But all wasn't right. Somehow, I had the tickle to go into FTSE and Nikkei in an exotic fashion - hedge one agaisnt the other. WEll, worked initially but ended up losing around 65% of what I had made today (but STILL scored the remaining 45 :) ). But my returns on oil were yet again hyperbolic (even if a shade to my previous trade)!
I had 72.40 in mind to short...and now that Ashraf puts his weight w/ 72.50/60, who am I not to go short? :)
Finally, I still think that oil has no fundamentals to it. It should b/w 60 & 65 (but who am I to determine)?