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BTC & ADA
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stories affect economics, look no further than the example of Bitcoin.
When the idea of Bitcoin was first introduced online in 2008 by a mysterious person under the name Satoshi Nakamoto, hype quickly grew around it. It was an entirely new system of money that had the ability to change everything we know about currency. From there, it became a global phenomenon, though partly not for the reason you’d think.
Sure, its innovation and complex mathematical theory is impressive, but what excited most people about it seemed to be the hype and mystery surrounding it. If you ask most Bitcoin investors about the actual theory that runs Bitcoin, they probably could only give you the very basics.
But ask them about what excites them about it and they’ll probably say it’s the idea of a new, revolutionary way of using currency. The way of the future. They feel that by investing in Bitcoin, they have a stake in the future, proving they are among the forward-thinkers of today.
Another narrative attached to Bitcoin is that it’s free of the control of governments and banks. This idea attracts those investors with an anarchic streak who view many modern institutions as corrupt. Because it isn’t attached to any one country, investors feel they are promoting internationalism.
In short, it is these futuristic narratives along with the mysterious founding of Bitcoin that have made it so attractive to investors, not the complex math behind it. Without the exciting story, it probably wouldn’t have succeeded as quickly as it has.
Lesson 2: There is a lot in common with epidemics and economic narratives.
Two subjects people don’t usually compare are epidemiology, or the study of epidemics, and economics. This is a shame, because epidemiology and economics could learn a lot from each other. Epidemiologists study how diseases spread, and many of the patterns they see are similar to what economists observe.
For example, they study a disease like Ebola. They keep track of things like the rate of contagion and well as recovery and death rates. When an epidemic is quickly spreading, the contagion rate is much higher than death and recovery rates. When the epidemic starts to decline, the contagion rate falls while the recovery and death rate outnumbers new cases.
This idea can be applied to economic narratives that are contagious. The contagion of a narrative rapidly rises as people talk about it, whether through conversation in person or online. It also spreads through the news and other media. But just like an epidemic, eventually, the story slows down. People start to forget or they just lose interest and the story dies off.
We can see this parallel when we look at the Bitcoin craze again. If you search how often news stories over the last decade said the word “Bitcoin” you can see this pattern. There was a sharp increase in 2014, and then there was another peak in 2018 before it fell again.
While this isn’t the end of the story for Bitcoin, we can see that the rapid increase and decline with secondary waves is strikingly similar to the shape of a graph of the contagion rate during an epidemic. So studying disease curves can give us a good idea of what a popular narrative might do to the market.
Lesson 3: We must understand the narratives of the past if we want to be ready for our economic future.
Clearly, narratives are important when we’re looking at the economy. This is why it’s essential that economists take these stories seriously, rather than just looking at the math, so they can more accurately predict what’s coming next.
Luckily for economists, now more than ever we are able to access data about these narratives. We can learn through market research, looking at social media, and gathering information about internet searches.
Technology can help economists to find patterns in the data. They can then use this information to predict what the prominent narratives will be and how they might affect the economy. Shiller makes a point to say it has to be done carefully and accurately if you are studying the effects of narratives on economic events.
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What good does this information do? By having a good understanding of narratives, policy-makers can help shape people’s behavior when there are times of stress.
An example of this is during the Great Depression, when President Roosevelt addressed the nation with “fireside chats.” He understood the people’s lack of confidence was part of what was keeping the economy down. In these chats, he asked people to set aside their fears and spend money. It seemed to work, too. Following each address, the markets stabilized.
If people in charge of making policy understand the narratives and take control of them, they can be active participants in what’s going on rather than just bystanders who have no control of the situation.
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Trading psychology describes how a trader handles generating gains and handling losses. It represents their ability to deal with risks and not deviate from their trading plan. The emotional aspects of investing will attempt to dictate your every transaction, and your ability to handle your emotions is part of your trading psychology.
It is impossible to eliminate emotions in trading, but this should not be the goal in the first place. Instead, traders should understand how certain biases or emotions can affect their trading and use this information to their advantage. Every trader is different, and there is no simple rulebook that everyone should follow.
Identify your personality traits
Develop and follow a trading plan
Take a break after a loss
Accept your winnings
Keep a trading log
Identify your personality traits
One of the keys to developing successful trading psychology is identifying your personality traits early on. You will need to be honest with yourself and say if you have impulsive tendencies or if you are prone to acting out of anger or frustration.
If this is the case, it is important to keep these traits in check while you are actively trading because they can lead you to make rash and ill-advised decisions that have little analytical backing. However, it is also important to play to your personal strengths. For instance, if you are naturally calm and calculated, you can take advantage of these personality traits during your time on the markets.
Equally as important as identifying and being aware of your personality traits and emotions is recognising your biases, as listed above. Biases are an innate aspect of human nature, but you should be aware of what your individual biases are before opening or closing any trades.
Develop and follow a trading plan
Having a trading plan is paramount to ensuring that you achieve your goals. A trading plan acts as the blueprint to your trading, and it should highlight your time commitments, your available trading funds, your risk-reward ratio and a trading strategy that you feel comfortable with.
For instance, a trading plan could say that you were going to commit one hour every morning and evening to trading, and that you will never commit more than 2% of the total value of your portfolio to any one trade. This can help minimise losses and limit the effect of emotions on your trading as the rules for opening or closing a position are already highlighted for you.
Trading plans should also take into account individual factors that could affect your trading discipline such as your emotions, biases and personality traits. If you make clear what your biases are before you start trading, you might be less inclined to act on them.
Patience is integral to discipline and it is crucial that you have patience with your positions. Acting on emotions like fear can lead you to miss out on a profit by closing a position too early. Trust your analysis and remain patient and disciplined. Equally, when looking to enter a trade, it is important to be patient and wait for the opportune moment rather than just jumping into a trade right then and there.
For instance, if you were wanting to speculate on some GBP currency pairs like EUR/GBP or GBP/USD, you may want to wait until just before a Bank of England (BoE) announcement as there tends to be increased volatility at this time.
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While it is important to have a trading plan, remember that no two days on the markets are the same, and winning streaks don’t exist in trading. With this in mind, you should become comfortable in assessing how the markets are different from day to day and adapt accordingly.
If there is more volatility on one day compared to the day before and the markets are moving particularly unpredictably, you may decide to put your trading activity on hold until you’re sure you understand what is happening. Being adaptive can help to limit your emotions and rule out representative and status quo biases, enabling you to assess each situation on its own merits – ensuring that you are pragmatic during your time on the markets.
Take a break after a loss
Sometimes after a loss, the best thing you can do is walk away from your trading account for a short while to gather your thoughts and compose yourself – rather than rushing into another trade in an attempt to regain some of your losses.
The best traders are those that take their losses and use them as learning opportunities. They will typically take a few minutes to themselves before going back to their platform, using this time to assess what went wrong for that particular trade in the hope that they might avoid making the same mistake in the future.
In doing so, they keep emotions like pride or fear in check by letting themselves cool off before approaching the next trade with a clear head and sound judgment. https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
when any animal was put into his hands, he could tell what it was merely by
the feel of it. One day the cub of a wolf was put into his hands, and he was asked
what it was. He felt it
Once identified and understood, cycles can add significant value to the technical analysis toolbox. However, they are not perfect. Some will miss, some will disappear and some will provide a direct hit. This is why it is important to use cycles in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis. Trend establishes direction, oscillators define momentum and cycles anticipate turning points. Look for confirmation with support or resistance on the price chart or a turn in a key momentum oscillator. It can also help to combine cycles. For example, the stock market is known to have 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles. These cycles can be combined with the Six Month Cycle and Presidential Cycle for added value. Signals are enhanced when multiple cycles nest at a cycle low.
A cycle is an event, such as a price high or low, which repeats itself on a regular basis. Cycles exist in the economy, in nature and in financial markets. The basic business cycle encompasses an economic downturn, bottom, economic upturn, and top. Cycles in nature include the four seasons and solar activity (11 years). Cycles are also part of technical analysis of the financial markets. Cycle theory asserts that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements in the financial markets.
Price and time cycles are used to anticipate turning points. Lows are normally used to define cycle length and then project future cycle lows. Even though there is evidence that cycles do indeed exist, they tend to change over time and can even disappear for a while. While this may sound discouraging, trend is the same way. There is indeed evidence that markets trend, but not all the time. Trend disappears when markets move into a trading range and reverses when prices change direction. Cycles can also disappear and even invert. Do not expect cycle analysis to pinpoint reaction highs or lows. Instead, cycle analysis should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis to anticipate turning points.
The Perfect Cycle and stock signals
The image below shows a perfect cycle with a length of 100 days. The first peak is at 25 days and the second peak is at 125 days (125 - 25 = 100). The first cycle low is at 75 days and the second cycle low is at 175 days (also 100 days later). Notice that the cycle crosses the X-axis at 50, 100 and 150, which is every 50 points or half a cycle.
Chart 1 - Cycles
Crest: Cycle high
Trough: Cycle low
Phase: Position of the cycle at a particular point in time (the example cycle is at .95 on day 20)
Inflection Point: This is where the cycle line crosses the X-axis
Amplitude: Height of the cycle from X-axis to peak or trough
Length: Distance between cycle highs or cycle lows
Observe that this is merely a blueprint for the ideal cycle; most cycles are not this well-defined.
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Cycle Length: Lows are usually used to define the length of a cycle and project the cycle into the future. A cycle high can be expected somewhere between the cycle lows.
Translation: Cycles almost never peak at the exact midpoint nor trough at the expected cycle low. Most often, peaks occur before or after the midpoint of the cycle. Right translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the latter part of the cycle during bull markets. Conversely, left translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the front half of the cycle during bear markets. Prices tend to peak later in bull markets and earlier in bear markets.
Harmonics: Larger cycles can be broken down into smaller, and equal, cycles. A 40-week cycle divides into two 20-week cycles. A 20-week cycle divides into two 10-week cycles. Sometimes a larger cycle can divide into three or more parts. The inverse is also true. Small cycles can multiply into larger cycles. A 10-week cycle can be part of a larger 20-week cycle and an even larger 40-week cycle.
Nesting: forex signals A cycle low is reinforced when several cycles signal a trough at the same time. The 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles are nesting when they all trough at the same time.
Inversions: Sometimes a cycle high occurs when there should be a cycle low and vice versa. This can happen when a cycle high or low is skipped or is minimal. A cycle low may be short or almost non-existent in a strong uptrend. Similarly, markets can fall fast and skip a cycle high during sharp declines. Inversions are more prominent with shorter cycles and less common with longer cycles. For instance, one could expect more inversions with a 10-week cycle than a 40-week cycle. Read more onhttps://www.gold-pattern.com/en
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The pattern contains three successive peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.
As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.
Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).
Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.
Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.
Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. In some cases, multiple low points can be used to form the neckline.
Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. Together, the decrease in volume and the new high of the head serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.
Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.
Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages.
Value investors are bargain shoppers. They seek stocks they believe are undervalued. They look for stocks with prices they believe don’t fully reflect the intrinsic value of the security. Value investing is predicated, in part, on the idea that some degree of irrationality exists in the market. This irrationality, in theory, presents opportunities to get a stock at a discounted price and make money from it.
It’s not necessary for value investors to comb through volumes of financial data to find deals. Thousands of value mutual funds give investors the chance to own a basket of stocks thought to be undervalued. The Russell 1000 Value Index, for example, is a popular benchmark for value investors and several mutual funds mimic this index.
Warren Buffet: The Ultimate Value Investor
But if you are a true value investor, you don't need anyone to convince you need to stay in it for the long run because this strategy is designed around the idea that one should buy businesses—not stocks. That means the investor must consider the big picture, not a temporary knockout performance. People often cite legendary investor Warren Buffet as the epitome of a value investor. He does his homework—sometimes for years. But when he’s ready, he goes all in and is committed for the long-term.
Consider Buffett’s words when he made a substantial investment in the airline industry. He explained that airlines "had a bad first century." Then he said, "And they got a bad century out of the way, I hope."2 This thinking exemplifies much of the value investing approach. Choices are based on decades of trends and with decades of future performance in mind.
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For those who don’t have time to perform exhaustive research, the price-earnings ratio (P/E) has become the primary tool for quickly identifying undervalued or cheap stocks. This is a single number that comes from dividing a stock’s share price by its earnings per share (EPS). A lower P/E ratio signifies you’re paying less per $1 of current earnings. Value investors seek companies with a low P/E ratio.
While using the P/E ratio is a good start, some experts warn this measurement alone is not enough to make the strategy work. Research published in the Financial Analysts Journal determined that “Quantitative investment strategies based on such ratios are not good substitutes for value-investing strategies that use a comprehensive approach in identifying underpriced securities.” 3 The reason, according to their work, is that investors are often lured by low P/E ratio stocks based on temporarily inflated accounting numbers. These low figures are, in many instances, the result of a falsely high earnings figure (the denominator). When real earnings are reported (not just forecasted) they’re often lower. This results in a “reversion to the mean.” The P/E ratio goes up and the value the investor pursued is gone.
What's the Message?
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The message here is that value investing can work so long as the investor is in it for the long-term and is prepared to apply some serious effort and research to their stock selection. Those willing to put the work in and stick around stand to gain. One study from Dodge & Cox determined that value strategies nearly always outperform growth strategies “over horizons of a decade or more.” The study goes on to explain that value strategies have
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A commingled is when an investment manager accumulates money from several investors and combines it into one fund.
Like mutual funds, commingled funds are overseen and managed by portfolio managers who invest in a range of securities.
Unlike mutual funds, commingled funds are typically not regulated by the SEC.
Commingled funds do not trade publicly and are not available for individual purchase; instead, they feature in institutional accounts such as pensions, retirement plans, and insurance policies.
Understanding a Commingled Fund
Commingling involves combining assets contributed by investors into a single fund or investment vehicle. Commingling is a primary feature of most investment funds. It may also be used to combine various types of contributions for various purposes
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In many ways, commingled funds are similar to mutual funds. Both are professionally managed by one or more fund managers and invest in basic financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, or a combination of both.
Also, like mutual funds, commingled fund investments benefit from economies of scale, which allow for lower trading costs per dollar of investment, and diversification, which lowers portfolio risk.
Oversight of Commingled Funds
One major and important difference, however, is that commingled funds are not regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which means they are not required to submit a variety of lengthy disclosures. Mutual funds, on the other hand, must register with the SEC and abide by the Investment Company Act of 1940.
Commingled funds are not completely devoid of oversight, though: They are subject to review by the United States Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, as well as individual state regulators.
While mutual funds have a prospectus, commingled funds have a Summary Plan Description (SPD). SPDs offer more detail, describing the fund's objectives, investment strategy, and background of its managers. The SPD document states the rights and obligations that the plan participants and beneficiaries can expect. Any participant in a commingled fund should read the SPD carefully.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Commingled Funds
The lower degree of regulation results in lower legal expenses and operating costs for a commingled fund. The lower the costs, the less drag on a fund's returns. If a commingled fund and a comparable mutual fund post the exact same gross performance, the commingled fund's net return would likely be better because its expenses were lower than the mutual fund's.
A disadvantage of commingled funds is that they do not have ticker symbols and are not publicly traded. This lack of public information can make it difficult for outside investors to track the fund's capital gains, dividends, and interest income. With mutual funds, this information is much more transparent. https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
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In some cases, the commingling of funds may be illegal. This usually occurs when an investment manager combines client money with their own or their firm's, in violation of a contract.
Details of an asset management agreement are typically outlined in an investment management contract. An investment manager has a fiduciary responsibility to manage assets according to certain specifications and standards. Assets agreed to be managed as separate cannot be commingled by the investment advisor.
Other situations may also arise where contributions provided by an individual or client must be managed with special care. This can occur in legal cases, corporate client accounts, and real estate transactions.
Investors are warned to never put all their eggs (investments) in one basket (security or market) which is the central thesis on which the concept of diversification lies.
To achieve a diversified portfolio, look for asset classes that have low or negative correlations so that if one moves down the other tends to counteract it.
ETFs and mutual funds are easy ways to select asset classes that will diversify your portfolio but one must be aware of hidden costs and trading commissions.
What Is Diversification?
Diversification is a battle cry for many financial planners, fund managers, and individual investors alike. It is a management strategy that blends different investments in a single portfolio. The idea behind diversification is that a variety of investments will yield a higher return. It also suggests that investors will face lower risk by investing in different vehicles.
5 Ways to Help Diversify Your Portfolio and Trading Signals
Diversification is not a new concept. With the luxury of hindsight, we can sit back and critique the gyrations and reactions of the markets as they began to stumble during the dotcom crash and again during the Great Recession.
Here are five tips for helping you with diversification:
1. Spread the Wealth
Equities can be wonderful, but don't put all of your money in one stock or one sector. Consider creating your own virtual mutual fund by investing in a handful of companies you know, trust and even use in your day-to-day life.
But stocks aren't just the only thing to consider. You can also invest in commodities, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real estate investment trusts (REITs). And don't just stick to your own home base. Think beyond it and go global. This way, you'll spread your risk around, which can lead to bigger rewards.
People will argue that investing in what you know will leave the average investor too heavily retail-oriented, but knowing a company, or using its goods and services, can be a healthy and wholesome approach to this sector.
Still, don't fall into the trap of going too far. Make sure you keep yourself to a portfolio that's manageable. There's no sense in investing in 100 different vehicles when you really don't have the time or resources to keep up. Try to limit yourself to about 20 to 30 different investments.
2. Consider Index or Bond Funds
You may want to consider adding index funds or fixed-income funds to the mix. Investing in securities that track various indexes makes a wonderful long-term diversification investment for your portfolio. By adding some fixed-income solutions, you are further hedging your portfolio against market volatility and uncertainty. These funds try to match the performance of broad indexes, so rather than investing in a specific sector, they try to reflect the bond market's value. https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
These funds are often come with low fees, which is another bonus. It means more money in your pocket. The management and operating costs are minimal because of what it takes to run these funds.
One potential drawback of index funds is their passively managed nature. While hands-off investing is generally inexpensive, it can be suboptimal in inefficient markets. Active management can be very beneficial in fixed income markets, especially during challenging economic periods.
3. Keep Building Your Portfolio
Add to your investments on a regular basis. If you have $10,000 to invest, use dollar-cost averaging. This approach is used to help smooth out the peaks and valleys created by market volatility. The idea behind this strategy is to cut down your investment risk by investing the same amount of money over a period of time.
With dollar-cost averaging, you invest money on a regular basis into a specified portfolio of securities. Using this strategy, you'll buy more shares when prices are low, and fewer when prices are high.
4. Know When to Get Out
Buying and holding and dollar-cost averaging are sound strategies. But just because you have your investments on autopilot doesn't mean you should ignore the forces at work.
Stay current with your investments and stay abreast of any changes in overall market conditions. You'll want to know what is happening to the companies you invest in. By doing so, you'll also be able to tell when it's time to cut your losses, sell and move on to your next investment.
5. Keep a Watchful Eye on Commissions