Posts by "asad"

Ashraf,

I know, and read about, that 'sugar high'. Erian is a gifted finance professional. I will read his book; however, yours comes first in the pecking order.

Did you see John Thain's FT interview on the Lehman collapse and selling Merril to BofA? One of the best I've seen recently! Let me know, otherwise I'll forward it to you..

Ashraf,

As always, my thinking correlates (positively) w/ yours! I am on Twitter...but I wouldn't want the SEC to follow me, right? :) I really don't know what Mr. 82K was thinking when he did that. From where I come, it is better to play discreetly and stay humble (although I went a bit overboard yesterday...more out of frustration over the way the markets had been trading (irrationally!) for the past few days - verily, a C'MONNN moment).

Breaking the "WTI Bank" wasn't as exciting as staying liquid longer than the markets stayed irrational!

And thanks SO much for your complements and encouragement. I take them to my heart...and having received (the ultimate) accolades from Ashraf Laidi himself tempts me to retire from trading while I'm still on a high. :p

Hey, you yourself must've made decent money on DUG, I was thinking...

FX,

As I wrote, I went berserk when it broke 71...and I continued to add short positions as oil fell...to the extent that by the time the price reached 69.50...EVERY penny in my a/c was short on oil!

I really REALLY had to swear/force/will myself EVEN to cover my positions here because, naturally...greed set in...and I wanted EVEN more (less) than 69.43!! But I closed the trade...slammed the notebook shut...and ran out of the room w/in split seconds. Believe me, it was surreal!

Technicals and fundamentals OUT OF THE WINDOW!! Just common sense.

- All positions being taken above $72 MUST have been short - what we saw this evening was a covering frenzy (hence, Monday will see the price in the late 70s)

- OPEC (maintain crude level), IEA (decrease in inventory) And China industrial (positive growth) updates were ALREADY priced in oil last night by 0300 GMT and YET oil stood frozen at 72.30. Why? Why didn't it run away to 73, 73.50, 74 - all news had pointed towards it. If it did not, there was ONLY one way - DOWN!

- With all the positive news gone, a correction was inevitable. I wrote last night that world markets would correct themselves starting from JAPAN...UK...US. Only the UK survived - barely!

I'm no analyst...but the rut begins Monday. Short Footise and you make make money over quick -35!

Forum,

NOT being cocky...but I'll just allow my emotion to take over for a bit! I...made...457%...on my last trade!! EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!! :D

I got a delta of 3.17...and during the last $1.50 on way down (when I had pocketed sufficiently), I put EVERYTHING in the a/c on the short side - SHIT OR BUST!! But it wasn't easy. I snapped quite a bit. DID you guys notice the gapping taking place like a drunken monkey swinging trees!!

But I'm humble enough to realise that such trades require timing, luck and well...luck! I do NOT expect to repeat this again (unless, ofcourse, I become big enough to manipulate).

I expect Monday to touch above 70...and then my beloved target of 66.80. Whether or not I'll play (or I even need to play), don't know...

Said,

I love China...and more so, Chinese females! ;)