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Posts by "callum"
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64 Posts by Anonymous "callum":
Let's see how next week looks for EURUSD. I am guessing Fitch downgrade and China hike is no longer relevant. Given lots of Q4 earnings due next week, this maybe just the excuse needed to further prop this back into 1.34 / 1.35 zone till the last of the weak shorts throw in their towel, before the market heads down to close towards Ashraf's target of 1.29/1.27...
Does anyone else have scenarios for this pair?
Also, does anyone look at ATR on Daily for EURUSD? Any resemblances to Sept period in 2010?
For liquidity China, I am also looking at the SHCOMP:IND and HSI:IND, both looking topsy and unlike SPX, hasn't broken above the November 2010 high. Seems like 61.8% fibo level posing key resistance between 2007/2008 high / low. Could it sustain itself until Chinese New Year??
Given the SGD is managed float and also sensitive to Chinese RMB makes it interesting to watch. I closed AUD/SGD fd at 1.31 (around same bid price in 2007) last Friday upon maturity. Friday made interesting candle to watch.
Now Struggling to stay above 1.31 and break 1.32 ... Notice similar 2008 peaks also.
How is it different this time?
Not much....
Except:
- Risk and EURO zone issue is finding itself prop commodities instead of USD, benefiting commodity based currencies
- QE2, still needs to play out
- Seriously Big news like PIIGS and Dubai not been a play during this Santa rally.
* China raised interest rates on Oct 19 for the first time in nearly three years.
* The central bank opted to raise banks' reserve requirements on Nov 19 (9:30am EST) ahead of data which showed inflation hit a 28-month high of 5.1 percent.
October 19 Candle
* SPX on 19th was a bear candle, but continued to push to be bullish till last week without any major reversal
* AUDUSD 0.9956 - 0.9661 (295 pip) on October 19, without follow-through, bouncing back on the 20th.
November 19
SPX still closed higher than open
AUDUSD around 100 pips lower on 19th with follow-throughout the week
It be interesting to see how the AUDUSD opens Monday :-)